Patrick Coyne Altcar Novices Chase Guide

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RUNNERS

Twelve remain in tact for Saturday's Grade Two Patrick Coyne Memorial Altcar Novices Chase at Haydock.

The distance to be covered is just over 2m3f, which should be right up the street of Ben Pauling's Kildisart. the 7y0 just prevailed at Ascot just days before Christmas in a graduation chase.

Chopping off two furlongs should definitely suit, for a horse who was also successful at Kempton last March.

Pauling also Le Breuil, who has been amongst the thick of things this term. In four appearances, he is yet to finish outside the top three, including an excellent second to Count Meribel in a Class Two Novices Chase back in November.

Colin Tizzard has three chances - two of which in the colours of Ann and Alan Potts Ltd - New To This Town and Pingshou.

Last year's Gold Cup winning trainer also has Slate House, who was a solid novice hurdle, sadly falling at the last when running a strong race in the Supreme at last year's Festival.

On his chasing debut, he finished fourth to French raider Master Dino at Plumpton, which looks some of the best form on paper from a novice of the season.

Philip Hobbs has Jerrysback, who was second at Ascot to another strong looking novice - Vinndication, can move a step further on, having won at odds at 50/1 at Bangor earlier on in the campaign.

Scorpion Sid, Go Long and Crucial Role will all look to follow up their most recent victories.

TRENDS

Some famous horses have won this race in recent times, including Diamond Harry (2010), Taquin Du Seuil (2014) and Bristol De Mai (2016).

The first notable trend to focus on is the fact that horses at the head of the market constantly oblige.

The last nine renewals have seen five favourites oblige whilst the other four races were won by the second horse in the betting. The biggest priced winner of those nine is just 11/4.

It is also best to focus on runners aged between 6 and 7 as they have won seven of the last nine renewals. It is extremely important to also focus on horses in fine fettle.

This is crucial when you consider the fact that six of the last nine winner went into the race on the back of victory.

It is worth noting that 33% of winners in recent times had run at the course. More crucially, distance form is pivotal.

Eight out of nine winners held a win over between 19 and 21 furlongs prior to winning this whilst five out of nine had at least two prior victories. 

Previous graded success is also relatively imperative with almost 50% of winners of the last decades holding victories at that level. 50% of the runners (six) hold such credentials going into this years race. 

Also be sure to back horses that have been active this season. All of the previous nine winners had run at least twice prior to going to post in this race.

That would rule out Nicky Henderson's Burbank along with Colin Tizzard's New To This Town and Slate House who are all scheduled to go to post on Saturday.

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