Denford Stakes Guide 2021

Newbury - August 13 2021
Newbury 12:45
4(3)
William Buick

Masekela

J:
 
William Buick
T:
 
Andrew Balding
Age: 2
Weight: 9-1
OR: 107
Days: 35

Trainer Andrew Balding is yet to replicate his father Ian's 1990 success in landing this race, however he enters the affair in excellent form, boasting a 27% strike rate with 17 winners in the last 14 days.

Furthermore the trainer holds an enormously impressive +£115.40 profit from a £1 level stake on all his horses at Newbury across the last 3 seasons putting his race favourite Masekela in excellent stead prior to post time.

With 3 previous runs, Masekela is one of the most experienced runners in the field and ran on well to win over 6f on debut at Goodwood upon soft ground.

The son of El Kabeir was subsequently stepped up to 7f however was never on terms at Ascot in listed company, finishing a well beaten 5th in the Chesham at Ascot, once more upon soft ground.

He then improved for the switch to faster ground at Newmarket, expected of progeny of El Kabeir who have a strong preference to firmer ground, finishing a shoulder 2nd in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket, the standout form in this field.

Balding's runner now drops back down into listed company for the Denford and is equipped with the in-form William Buick in the saddle.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
19/05/23YOR10.5GF9-119
18/04/23NMK9GS9-26
08/09/22DON10GS8-122
20/08/22YOR9GF9-04
28/07/22GOO12GF9-39
Newbury - August 13 2021
Newbury 12:45
2(4)
David Egan

Bayside Boy

J:
 
David Egan
T:
 
Roger Varian
Age: 2
Weight: 9-1
OR: N/A
Days: 29

Roger Varian is a two time winner of the Denford, including winning last years race with Saint Lawrence, so its no surprise to see runner Bayside Boy sit prominently in the betting, especially given Varian's recent run of form with a 28% strike rate in the last 14 days.

Bayside Boy has had just the one previous run however it was enough to suggest that he go well here given that it was an impressive 3.25 length C&D victory upon similar race conditions.

The son of New Bay holds three future Group entries and is expected to take another big step forward second time out for the step up into listed company.

Progeny of New Bay are extremely suited to the galloping undulating surface of Newbury boasting a 28% strike rate at the track and a 71% place rate, 1.6x above their expected win rate, paying further dividends to the chances of Bayside Boy for the affair.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
14/09/22SAN8Sft9-11
29/07/22GOO8GF9-34
14/06/22ASC8GF9-27
15/05/22LON8GS9-313
23/10/21DON8Sft9-13
Newbury - August 13 2021
Newbury 12:45
6(5)
Hector Crouch

Seattle King

J:
 
Hector Crouch
T:
 
Ralph Beckett
Age: 2
Weight: 9-1
OR: N/A
Days: 52

Seattle King for Ralph Beckett is 1 from 1, thanks to a ready debut win at Salisbury (7f) last time out, running out a 1.5 length victor.

The son of Kingman was well backed in the market that day and justified the markets support who clearly knew of the potential he posses', now signified by multiple group entries for September and October.

He's entitled to take another big step forward here second time out for the entrance into listed company, whilst he's also expected to relish the Newbury track with progeny of Kingman boasting a 23% strike rate and 46% place rate from all the sire's runners here, 1.25x above his expected win rate.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
30/05/23BRI10Fm9-77
23/05/23BRI12GF8-115
03/05/23BRI10GF9-81
02/05/23BRI12GF9-94
22/04/23BRI10Gd9-61
Newbury - August 13 2021
Newbury 12:45
5(1)
Tom Marquand

Robjon

J:
 
Tom Marquand
T:
 
Richard Hannon
Age: 2
Weight: 9-1
OR: 84
Days: 15

Richard Hannon won this race in 2018 with Boitron and the trainer is operating to a profitable +£15 to a £1 level stake at Newbury this season with 11 winners, the most he has had at any track thus far this year.

His entrant, Robjon, is the most experienced of the 6 runner field with 6 previous runs, thereby making him more exposed than his opposition.

A keeping on 5.5f win at Brighton on debut was followed up with a hat-trick of runner up finishes from Class 4 to Class 2 company and a 4th placed finish at Newbury over 6f on his penultimate run when dropping into a class 5 novice, 7.5 lengths off the pace of the winner, doesn't read too well in the context.

The son of Mukhadram did however run well and improve for his entrance into handicap company last time out at Goodwood finishing 3rd, keeping on once again over 6f, giving hope that he will relish the step up in trip to 7f.

Having said this, the race also represents a step up in class and given his record thus far in the lower grades, he looks susceptible to the likely improvements of his rivals.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
18/06/22NMK7Gd9-78
05/06/22GOO7Gd9-15
24/05/22LIN6St9-114
30/04/22NMK6Gd9-212
13/04/22NMK6Gd9-35
Newbury - August 13 2021
Newbury 12:45
3(2)
Pat Dobbs

Holiday

J:
 
Pat Dobbs
T:
 
Richard Hannon
Age: 2
Weight: 9-1
OR: N/A

Richard Hannon's second race entrant, Holiday, ranks one of two big priced outsiders for the contest and that seems fair given this will be the runners very first outing at a race track.

It speaks volumes of how highly thought of this runner may be to be thrown straight into listed company on debut, whilst progeny of Time Test are still of a relatively unknown quality given the lack of racing the sire's offspring have encountered thus far.

The runner holds a Group entry for mid-September sandwiched between two big payout 2yo races at Doncaster and Newmarket, signifying plenty of future potential.

The market should be instructive of his chances in this and whilst he can't be completely discounted, the likeliness of him needing his first outing, particularly in listed company against more experienced opposition, should ultimately hold him here.

Newbury - August 13 2021
Newbury 12:45
1(6)
Hollie Doyle

Amor Vincit Omnia

J:
 
Hollie Doyle
T:
 
Tom Dascombe
Age: 2
Weight: 9-1
OR: N/A
Days: 44

Tom Dascombe is in fantastic form of late with a 24% strike rate across the last 14 days, boding well for the chances of his future entrants.

Amor Vincit Omnia, named after a painting of cupid by artist Caravaggio, aptly named the sire of the runner, was 9th on debut over 6f here at Newbury.

Whilst he's entitled to improvement for the step up to 7f on his second run out, the task at hand looks a little steep based on that last run and he will need a huge step forward to land this.

Progeny of Caravaggio have a mere 2 wins across 28 runs at galloping tracks like Newbury, significantly below their expected win rate, thereby further counting against the runners chances in this.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
22/04/23NBY10Sft9-96
21/10/22NBY7Sft9-83
14/10/22HAY8Hy9-64
23/09/22HAY8GS9-1010
27/07/22GOO7GF9-418