The pinnacle of staying chasing. The Blue Riband of jump racing. The Gold Cup is a highlight of the Cheltenham Festival.
The Gold Cup this year looks to be another strong renewal with last year's winner Galopin Des Champs looking to defend his crown.
With many horses returning from last year's renewal we are expecting many of them to go close once more but do the stat back them up?
Chasing experience is vitally important when it comes to the big race of the week at the Cheltenham Festival, with 21 of the last 24 winners of the Gold Cup having made at least 12 starts over fences.
Experience at Cheltenham should also be respected, with all 12 winners of the race since 2012 having run at Cheltenham on at least one occasion, with seven victors also claiming at least one success at the track.
Bettors should be wary of horses that spent two years over hurdles before going chasing, with no winner this century having won the Gold Cup following that route. But, previous high-class experience over hurdles at the Festival should be respected, with placed horses from the Supreme being 6-7 this century.
A key race with the Gold Cup in mind is the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, with five of the last 13 winners having run in the Grade 1 contest in the previous season before winning the Gold Cup.
The market will likely be telling for the Gold Cup, with 16 of the last 23 winners having been sent off at odds of 7/1 or shorter. Favourites also have a very impressive record, with eleven of the last 21 outright market leaders having won the Gold Cup.
Galopin Des Champs continued that trend in 2023, as the Willie Mullins runner became the second outright favourite in two years to win the Gold Cup. Favourites have also landed victories in four of the last six editions, with the biggest price contender over that period being Al Boum Photo at 12/1 in 2019.
The age of the runner is also important to consider. All but one of the winners in the last 24 years have been aged between seven and nine, which includes all victors since 2012.
Meanwhile, there hasn’t been a winner in the Gold Cup aged older than nine this century, while only Mill House has won aged six since 1963. Horses aged eight have dominated the recent editions of the race, with three winners in the last four years.
Season form is also important to consider before nailing down a selection in the Gold Cup. Only two of the last 16 winners of the race have run on more than three occasions during the current season. Recent winning experience is also key, with 17 of the last 23 winners having won on their previous start.
However, a race to potentially overlook is the Cotswolds Chase, which has failed to produce a Gold Cup winner this century. Grade 1 experience is also vitally important to consider, with all winners of the Gold Cup this century having landed at least one victory at the highest level.
Galopin Des Champs will be hard to beat in his target to record a second successive win in the race. However, there could be value in siding with Venetia Williams’ L’Homme Presse.
The 2022 winner of the Brown Advisory has looked back to his best after over a year away from the track, scoring over two miles and six in the Fleur de Lys, before chasing home Pic D’Orhy over a shorter trip.
He will need to improve onceagain in the Gold Cup to land the prized honour, but his Cheltenham form brings him into the conversation at a big price.
