Gold Cup

Gold Cup Trends 2022

The pinnacle of staying chasing. The Blue Riband of jump racing. The Gold Cup is a highlight of the Cheltenham Festival. 

The Gold Cup this year looks to be one of the most open renewals in recent years we have gone through the stats and trends looking for the winner.

With many horses returning from last year's renewal we are expecting many of them to go close once more but do the stat back them up?

Stat One

Kicking off with age, 14 of the last 15 winners had been aged 7-9 years old.

In fact, only one winner in the last 25 years was aged 10 or over. This is a truly attritional test of stamina, jumping, concentration and attitude. Having a long career prior to a gold cup win is a likely hindrance.

Al Boum Photo is looking to regain his title but at the age of 10 could be struggling along with the stayer Santini, with both of them now getting passed their prime.

Stat Two

As mentioned, longer careers tends to make the winning less likely. Being kept fresh for the Gold Cup looks important as 13 of the last 15 winners had three or fewer runs that season.

Be wary of horses who have had four or more runs in the season, although this trend was overturned by Minella Indo last year, it is well documented that horses might have left their best run behind them too early in the season.

Many of the horses heading into this year's race have had either two or three runs, with exceptions being Al Boum Photo with one run and Asterion Forlonge with four runs.

Stat Three

Class is an obvious deciding factor in this contest. 11 of the last 15 winners were rated 166+.

Al Boum Photo fell out of this bracket on his first win being rated 164, alongside Minella Indo and Sizing John, who was also rated 164.

Class is an important factor. Keep official ratings in mind.

Stat Four

To continue building our profile, form is an important factor to look for coming into the Gold Cup.

12 of the last 15 winners won their previous start before Cheltenham.

Only Lord Windermere, Imperial Commander and last year's winner Minella Indo are the exceptions to this rule, coming sixth, fifth and fourth respectively on their prep runs.

Look for those who won last time out, coming into the festival in form looks highly important.


Stat Five

Further narrowing the field down, nine of the last 15 winners had a win in open Grade 1 chase company.

Be cautious giving your backing to horses who haven’t proved themselves in open company in a Grade 1.

They might have been top novices but will struggle to more experienced types. Don’t take it on merit that a runner will be able to hold their own in open Grade 1 company.

It doesn't look good for the likes of Protektorat, Chantry House and Royal Pagaille who are yet to win at the top level.

Stat Six

Previous festival form is highly worth considering. 11 of the last 14 winners of the Gold Cup ran at the previous year’s festival and placed in a Grade 1 chase.

Keep last year’s festival chases in mind. The Brown Advisory, Gold Cup, Ryanair and Turners all are good indicators to this year’s Gold Cup.

2021 Gold Cup top three: Minella Indo, A Plus Tard, Al Boum Photo

2021 Brown Advisory top three: Monkfish, Fiddlerontheroof, The Big Breakaway

2021 Turners Top 3: Chantry House, Fusil Raffles, Asterion Forlonge

2020 Ryanair top 3: Allaho, Fakir D'oudairies, Tornado Flyer

Stat Seven

12 of the last 15 winners had 10 or fewer career chase starts on their CV.

Again this leans into the trend that the winners need to be relatively lightly raced and fresh enough to make an impact in this contest.

This sees many of the more exposed horses like Al Boum Photo, Santini and Royal Pagaille really struggling.

Especially Grade 1 winners who turned out with a place at the festival last year.

Value Angle

A horse that fits most of the trends is the Gordon Elliott trained Galvin who is a previous Cheltenham festival winner that is still fairly unexposed over fences only having 12 starts over the bigger obstacles during his career.

Rated 165 for his latest win he will be sure to near the top of the pile when it comes to ability in the field and having won the NH Chase his stamina for the trip is unquestioned.

At his current price of 4/1 he can not be overlooked.

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