Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Trends

The final Grade 1 hurdle for the novices to contend, the Spa Novices’ hurdle lends itself to the battle hardened and gritty stayers of the division.

The race is aimed at four year olds and over, the three mile trip tests horses for their ability to grind through an attritional test.

Last year saw a Stay Away Fay power up the hill for a win for Paul Nicholls as he now bids for more Festival glory in the Brown Advisory.

It creates some brilliant novice chasers and established staying hurdlers, the trends and stats below hopefully point to the next superstar.

An interesting stat to get us up and running with these stats and trends for the Albert Bartlett is the fact that just one of the last 12 winners were favourite. That win came all the way back in 2013, where AP McCoy steered Rebecca Curtis’ At Fishers Cross to glory after four wins in a row prior to the festival.

The favourite in the last two years renewals of this hurdle contest have either ran out (Corbetts Cross, 2023) or been pulled up (Hillcrest, 2022). That could spell bad news for backers of the likes of Readin Tommy Wrong (current 6/1 joint-fav).

Moving on nicely after our first stat, nine of the last 12 winners of this 3m race have been priced at 11/1 or higher. In recent times, that has been the case in all of the last three renewals. Vanillier won in 2021 for Gavin Cromwell at 14/1, The Nice Guy won in 2022 for Willie Mullins at 18/1 and last year’s winner Stay Away Fay for Paul Nicholls was also 18/1.

That trend could bode well for the likes of Ben Pauling’s The Jukebox Man (16/1), who has been in great form of late or Jingko Blue (20/1) for Nicky Henderson.

Ten winners out of the last 12 of the Albert Bartlett were rated 136 or higher, with anomalies including The Nice Guy in 2022, who hadn’t got a rating at that point after a minimal amount of runs over hurdles leading up to the festival and Minella Indo in 2019 for Henry De Bromhead, who also hadn’t had a rating.

Last year’s winner Stay Away Fay was on the line at 136. Of course, I will reveal my value pick for the race at the end of this article, but he is currently rated 140, which could boost his chances of winning based on the trends.

Ten of the last 12 winners of this 3m race on the Friday of the festival have been aged six or seven, with then eight-year-old Unowhatimeanharry winning in 2016 and five-year-old Very Wood winning in 2015 being the odd ones out for this stat.

The horses leading the market for this year’s renewal are all in the age bracket of six to seven and are all trained by one of the most successful trainer’s of all time, Willie Mullins.

Another trend we have identified is very similar to the outsider trend mentioned earlier, which is the fact that three of the last 12 winners were priced at 33/1 or higher. The highest priced winner from the last 12 years came in 2019, when Minella Indo won the contest when priced at 50/1 in the hands of Rachael Blackmore.

Could we see one of the likes of Gordon Elliott’s Stellar Story (33/1) or could Rebecca Curtis win this for the first time since 2013 with 50/1 outsider Haiti Couleurs?

As I mentioned earlier, my value pick for the race is rated 140 and is trained by Paul Nicholls. Captain Teague is currently priced at 10/1 following his success in the G1 Challow at Newbury last time out, meaning he comes to the festival with a lot of promise.

Harry Cobden should ride on the day and has been in terrific form this season, which can only be a positive as the duo look for a second successive win in the contest after their win with Stay Away Fay last term.

I think he can go very close at the very least.