Triumph Hurdle Trends


James Mackie | @JMackieRacing

Triumph Hurdle Trends 2024

The Triumph Hurdle this season looks one of the hottest renewals for a while and we have some key trends that might help you to pick your four year old in the contest.

There are three horses at the top of the market that have dominated the betting for the majority of the season with Lossiemouth, Blood Destiny and Gala Marceau all coming from the Willie Mullins stable.

Here are the key stats and trends to look out for.

Stat One

The Triumph Hurdle features the best of the four year old juveniles and a key stat that has been common in all of the last 16 winners is they have all had less than seven career starts over hurdles.

Nearly all the runners in the field will fit this bill with many of the youngsters started their racing lives on the flat and coming over to hurdles this term.

Stat Two

Following with the trend that being less exposed is better for you in this contest, 15 of the last 16 winners of the race had all been involved in six or fewer runs during the season.

Again this plays to the strengths of many in the field but Vauban was having his seventh run in the race last season to break this trade having had a few runs on the flat in France.

Stat Three

A very interesting stat is that 15 of the last 16 winners were rated 139+ which again plays to the strengths of the horses at the top of the market.

The Irish are yet to get their English marks but it does not look good for the English with the home teams division challenge not looking good from a ratings persepctive.

Stat Four

Form heading into the festival is a huge thing for most horses but especially in this Grade One as 14 of the last 15 winners had all finished first or second in their final outing before Cheltenham.

This would see the likes of Scriptwriter, Rare Middleton and Afadil struggling having not been in the first two on their last few runs.

You do not see many horses head to Cheltenham off the back of a fall or a weak performance and go and win next time out at the festival.

Huge negative.

Stat five

One of the first stats that sees some horses at the top of the market out of the trends is that 14 of the last 16 winners have been either French or Irish bred horses.

Lossiemouth, Gala Marceau, Blood Destiny and Comfort Zone all fit this trend with the first three being French bred and the last runner Irish.

Stat Six

Earlier we mentioned about many of these horses running on the flat prior to coming over hurdles and 6/11 winners that had ran on the flat were rated 80+.

This stat can be looked at two ways as some horses in the field have never ran on the flat and have only gone over hurdles like the favourite Lossiemouth.

Stat Seven

Finally, quite a quirky stat to finish is that 11/16 winners had won a hurdle race at either Ascot, Cheltenham, Kempton or Leopardstown.

The top three in the market followed this stat last year and three of the top four in the market follow this trend again, with Blood Destiny only being seen twice at Cork and Fairyhouse albeit winning both.

Value Angle - Blood Destiny

Although not being seen at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Leopardstown so far in his career what he has shown in his two races to date makes him a huge contender and with him currently not the favourite and arguably should be close in the market to stablemate Lossiemouth, he looks the value.