Ryanair Chase Trends

Possibly the lesser valued championship race of the festival (yes it is a championship race) the Ryanair see’s the best middle distance horses fight for Grade 1 honours.

Ran over two miles and 4 1/2 furlongs, it gives an option to those not fast enough for the Champion Chase and not stamina potent enough for the Gold Cup.

Last year Envoi Allen added to his Cheltenham Festival tally when lowering the colours of Shishkin under Rachael Blackmore. The stats and trends could help point to this year's winner.

The first stat we have looked at for the Ryanair Chase is the fact that all 12 of the last 12 winners of the 2m 4 1/2f chase were aged between seven and nine. The most recent of those was winners was Envoi Allen, for Henry De Bromhead, which was his second winner in the last 12 years (Balko Des Flos won in 2018).

This could bode well for the likes of Stage Star and Banbridge, who are at the top of the betting for the 2024 Ryanair Chase and are both eight-year-olds. Last year’s winner Envoi Allen could come here again and would need to defy this trend, as he is now a ten-year-old.

Half of the last 12 winners of the Ryanair won on their latest outing before the festival. This does not apply to last year’s winner Envoi Allen, who finished seventh in the King George at Kempton before triumphing in last year’s renewal of this contest.

Despite Envoi Allen breaking the trend last term, Allaho won this in 2021 and 2022 after winning on his most recent start prior to the festival, which favours the likes of Banbridge, who won the G2 Conti Chase at Kempton last time out.

However, Paul Nicholls’ Stage Star was pulled up on his last start in a Cheltenham handicap, so he may have to follow in the footsteps of Envoi Allen if he has any hope of winning the Ryanair.

11 of the last 12 winners of the Ryanair Chase have been rated 162 or higher, with the closest runner to being below that threshold surprisingly Willie Mullins’ Allaho, who won his first Ryanair off a mark of exactly 162 in 2021, before winning off 174 a year later in 2022.

The winner of the 2015 Ryanair was Uxizandre, trained by Alan King at the time, who won off 161 in the hands of the legendary jockey AP McCoy, when priced at 16/1. The gelding is the only one of the last 12 to win without being in the top three in the market.

Banbridge, the current market leader this term is rated 161, so would need to follow suit to Uxizandre to defy a common theme over the years.

11 of the last 12 winners of the Ryanair had previously recorded at least one victory earlier in the season, with only Dynaste for David Pipe and Tom Scudamore in 2014 winning the contest on the back of zero wins that season.

Five of those winners had also won more than one race, including the legendary Frodon and Bryony Frost, who had won three times during the 2019 season before winning the Ryanair.

At the top of the market, at the time of writing, Banbridge and Stage Star have already recorded wins this season, while last year’s winner Envoi Allen is yet to record victory this term, whereas last year he had won once at Down Royal prior to finishing seventh in the King George and then first in the Ryanair.

The final trend we look at for the Ryanair is the fact that exactly half of the last 12 winners went on to run in the same race at the festival a year later. However, only one of those six won the race the following year, with that horse being the incredible Allaho, who won the Ryanair back-to-back in 2021 and 2022 in the hands of Paul Townend for Willie Mullins.

Only one of those six placed the year after as well, meaning that it is a tough feat for Envoi Allen to achieve, after winning this last year in the hands of Rachael Blackmore. That could open the door to the likes of Banbridge and Stage Star, who look well set to rival De Bromhead’s ten-year-old for victory.

Only six of the last 15 favourites have won the Ryanair. The market has a habit of earmarking the wrong horse as the favourite.

But, 11 of the last 14 winners have been in the top three in the betting.

Although favourites might disappoint it can pay to keep your attention near the top of the market, however the favourite has won the last two renewals of this race.

I’m aware that Banbridge is currently a short (ish) price in the market at around 5/2 NRNB and 11/4 antepost for the Ryanair, but if the ground suits him, I’d be taking the likes of Envoi Allen and Stage Star on with this consistent eight-year-old, who has been in great form over the last couple of years.

He is quite ground dependent, so the NRNB looks good with him, and he arrives at the Ryanair on the back of two wins from his last two outings, firstly in the G1 Manifesto at Aintree and the G1 Conti Chase at Kempton in January.

If he runs in this, that will suggest his trainer Joseph O’Brien is happy with the ground and he could run a big race on his return to the Cheltenham Festival (last won the Martin Pipe here in 2022).