Ryanair Chase Trends

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Ryanair Chase Trends 2022

Possibly the lesser valued championship race of the festival (yes it is a championship race) the Ryanair see’s the best middle distance horses fight for Grade 1 honours.

Ran over two miles and 5 furlongs, it gives an option to those not fast enough for the Champion Chase and not stamina potent enough for the Gold Cup.

Last year Allaho put up one of the performances of the festival to take the event with ease and all roads lead to this star retaining his title.

Stat One

With the Grade 1 races, age is always a good place to start to begin narrowing the field down.

All of the last 14 winners were aged 7-10 years old.

Furthermore, 12 of the last 13 winners were aged 7-9 years old.

The latter bracket gives us a strong platform to start narrowing the field down. Albertas Run is the only exception to this rule, winning the 2011 running under A P McCoy as a 10 year old.

Narrowing the focus down to those within the bracket, it’s looking unlikely that 10 year old Melon will be able to go close.

Stat Two

Peaking at the right time is essential when it comes to winning at the Festival. If a horse has left it’s best run of the season behind it in the Winter, it might be bottomed out by the time the Spring festival rolls around.

13 of the last 14 runners had four or fewer runs that season prior to lining up in the Ryanair.

Look for those who haven’t been overexerting themselves prior to Cheltenham, this is a Grade 1 after all and being in peak condition is important.

Stat Three

With this being a Grade 1 and a Championship race, there’s a class barrier to establish in the field.
12 of the last 13 winners were rated 161 or above.

Immediately this defines the area to look at in the field.

Those rated less than 161 might not have the quality to get involved in the finish.

The last six winners have been rated:

Allaho 162

Min 170

Frodon 169

Balko Des Flos 166

Un De Sceaux 171

Vautour 176

Class tells at the top table, the last 6 winners have all been rated 162+.

Stat Four

Adding to the class angle, previous form in a Grade 1 is important here.

10 of the last 14 winners of the Ryanair had already previously won a Grade 1.

Arrow your focus down to those who are proven at this level. If they’ve struggled in Grade 1 company before it might be they don’t have the class to be competitive at this grade.

Although, Allaho was the exception to this rule last year, but having now landed two Grade 1's heading into this seasons renewal, he looks tough to beat.

Stat Five

Adding to previous Grade 1 form, you should also be looking for those who have previous Cheltenham form.

10 of the last 14 winners have previously won a race at Cheltenham before the Ryanair.

Nine of the last 12 winners had previously won a chase around Cheltenham.

Eight of the last 11 winners had previously won a graded chase at Cheltenham.

Course form is highly important. Pay attention to those telling clues of a “C” next to your pick's name. Handling the hill is a positive clue they can do well in the Ryanair.

If you have a previous course and distance winner in a Grade 1 at Cheltenham, you could be on to a winner.  

Again, Allaho went against this trend last year but now fits this bill.

Stat Six

To keep ticking the boxes of the previous form, look for runners who had previously ran at the Festival.

12 of the last 14 winners ran at the previous year’s festival. Pay attention to horses who turned out at Cheltenham last year.

Having experience at the festival is a massive positive. They go harder here and tend to have big fields. Practice in this environment is a huge positive.

Be cautious giving backing to horses who didn’t run in the festival last year or have no festival experience. They might not handle the big occasion, this doesn't help the case of Irish Gold Cup winner Conflated.

To dig further into the form, 10 of those 12 winners ran in the previous year’s Arkle, Marsh or Ryanair.

These races are good indicators for those who will perform well in this race. Especially previous Ryanair experience and Marsh experience as they cover the course and distance.

Warning

Only five of the last 13 favourites have won the Ryanair. The market has a habit of earmarking the wrong horse as the favourite.
But, 11 of the last 13 winners have been in the top three in the betting.

Although favourites might disappoint it can pay to keep your attention near the top of the market.

Value Angle

Allaho looks the banker of the festival for many but at an each way price Eldorado Allen for Colin Tizzard looks big value at 14/1, placing at the festival last year and going up to a mark in the low 160s puts him in the mix.

Many punters will be looking to play without the favourite with him being very short and also hitting many of the trends this year, but this 14/1 shot can finish closely behind him.

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