Saturday ITV Racing Epsom Preview - 03/06/23

The first race of the afternoon on Saturday from Epsom is the Group Three Diomed Stakes over 8.5f and the value in the field looks to be Kolsai for Roger Varian.

Seen twice as a juvenile, making his debut at Leicester over 7f on good ground he finished a nose second behind a more experienced type.

Improving for his first run he finished his juvenile season off at Newmarket again on good ground when getting off the mark over 7f.

Seen twice this season he made his seasonal debut in the Listed Feilden Stakes when finishing narrow second to Canberra Legend over 1m1f.

Dropped back to a mile at Goodwood when last seen he was second again, suffering big traffic problems and when finally getting a gap the bird had flown with the winner Cicero's Gift looking special.

This looks a weak Group Three and getting weight off the field makes him an attractive bet.

The feature race of the afternoon and arguably the season is the Group One Epsom Derby over 1m4f and with a special field going to post we have picked out a win and each way selection.

The win pick is the Charlie Appleby trained Military Order who has done nothing wrong this season and having proved he stays the trip he is our stand out selection.

Seen four times to date, the full brother to Derby winner Adayar who won this event in 2021, Military Order was fourth of 10 on debut at Newmarket learning plenty for the experience.

Stepped up to a mile for his second event as a juvenile he got off the mark in good style beating stable mate Ancient Rules by just under a length.

Stepped up again in trip for his seasonal debut this term over 1m2f at Newbury, he looked a class apart when bolting up by four lengths under a penalty.

He went up again to 1m4f when last seen at Lingfield in the Listed Derby Trial and from his pedigree the trip was always going to suit and the further he went the better he became winning stylishly in the end to take the race.

We have not hit the ceiling with this horse yet and he has plenty going for him to take this Classic.

From an each way perspective we with think the Jessica Harrington trained Sprewell can outrun his odds if staying the 1m4f trip.

A horse that showed glimpses he could be a talented horse at three when a juvenile, racing twice and finishing fourth over 8.5f on debut at Gowran Park and then at Naas over a mile on heavy ground he was second to a nice type for Aidan O'Brien.

Starting this term off over a mile at Naas again when getting off the mark in a four runner event, he was then sent to Leopardstown up to 1m2f and revelling in every bit of the trip he went on to easily win the Group Three Derby Trial Stakes by three lengths.

He is not bread for 1m4f but visually from the way he won last time out he should get the extra distance and he looks a bit overpriced to us.

The final Group event of the afternoon is the Princess Elizabeth Stakes over 8.5f and in a race that lacks horses in form we are going with the class angle of Prosperous Voyage.

A very smart juvenile in 2021 placing in the Group Three Prestige Stakes, Group Two May Hill Stakes and then the Group One Fillies' Mile, with her two latter runs behind Inspiral.

Back as a three year old last term she was up and down but when on a going day showed her class, finishing second to Cachet on seasonal debut in the Group One 1000 Guineas but then running no race at Royal Ascot in the Coronation Stakes.

Putting that behind her she bounced back to form to record the best win of her career when taking the Group One Falmouth Stakes, reversing the form with the superstar Inspiral to easily take the race.

She then finished last term with a sixth of nine in the Prix Jacques Le Marois and fourth of nine in the Group One Sun Chariot Stakes with both of those runs on ground slower than she would normally like.

Returning this term when needing the run at Newmarket in the Group Two Dahlia Stakes, again on soft ground and stripping much fitter for that on her ideal fast conditions she could take all the beating if running to anywhere near some of her Group One form throughout her career.

Moving on to the Handicaps on the afternoon and the first is the Aston Martin 3YO Dash Handicap over 5f and the horse that takes the eye is the Roger Varian trained Russet Gold.

Finishing fifth of 15 at Doncaster in July on debut behind the likes of Mill Stream and Zaman Jemil who have since franked the form in better races, he then went to Glorious Goodwood over 6f and was a middle of the road eighth in a big field behind Group One winner Mischief Magic.

Dropped down to 5f for the first time next time out he got off the mark in taking style at Pontefract and then on handicap debut when last seen at York in October he was a good third giving over a stone away to the winner.

Racing off the same mark of 87 and getting his ideal conditions, we think he has a big chance.

One of the toughest punting races of the season takes place at Epsom and it is the Dash Handicap over 5f and if being able to fly out from stall 6, Look Out Louis is now well handicapped.

A horse between 2021 and 2022 who rose through the sprinting handicap ranks winning a race off 78 and finishing his season last term racing off a mark of 101.

In electric form last term winning races at Newcastle, Chester and Haydock, his final win in September came off a mark of 95 when easily beating the smart sprinter Korker.

Rounding off the season off 101 when running no race in Group Three company, this term he has been in similar poor running at Lingfield and Chester off 100 and 99 and both runs screamed trying to get him back down to a more feasible mark.

Dropped heavily for both those runs this season to a mark of 96, he is now only 1lb higher than his last winning mark which makes him appealing again.

Next up is the Betfred Lester Piggot Handicap over 1m2f and Torito for John & Thady Gosden could well be a group horse in a handicap.

Seen once as a juvenile when third of 14 in a Maiden on debut at Newbury over a mile of soft ground only going down by a length, he was then put away for this season.

Returning at Nottingham in April when getting off the mark in a three runner Novice Stakes over 8.5f again on soft ground, he then stepped up in trip at Sandown when last seen finishing a good second to the talented Artistic Star who goes for the Derby earlier on in the card.

Making his handicap debut off a mark of 95 makes him interesting and getting good ground for the first time in his career and being bred to be better on that surface is another angle for him.

The penultimate race of the afternoon at Epsom on Saturday is the Northern Dancer Handicap over 1m4f and Scampi at the top of the market could be tough to beat.

A winner off a mark of 76 in July over course and distance on good to firm ground, he then went to Doncaster in August and took another decent handicap off 5lb higher, again on quick ground.

Up to a mark of 86 going back to the all weather on his final run of the season he finished fifth of 12 in the competitive Racing League.

Back this season at Epsom when not enjoying the soft ground over 10f, he was last seen at York back on quicker ground off the same mark and from the front landed the valuable Jorvik handicap.

Up 6lb for that, quick ground is the key to this horse and showing he handles this track already is a huge positive aswell.

The final selection of the afternoon comes in the JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap over 6f and now it is June and he is on a dropping mark Mr Wagyu enters calculations.

You have to disregard anything this horse does before or after June or July as he comes into his own during these two months accumulating the majority of his wins in these months.

A 15 time winner for this yard and all of those have come in June Or July, with the start of his campaign seeing him drop down the handicap and in the latter stages of the season he is too high in the handicap.

The same has happened this term running three times in competitive 5f and 6f handicaps at Newmarket, Ripon and York without really threatening seeing his mark drop from 101 to 96.

That now sees him only 2lb higher than when winning this race last year, but still well in by 4lbs from his last winning mark.

Fascinating contender.