Newbury Saturday Preview - 15/05/21

The first race of the day is the Conditions Stakes over six furlongs and the Richard Hannon trained Dukebox looks to have a big chance stepping up in trip.

The son of Holy Roman Emperor has been seen once before in his career and he got off the mark in fine style over 5f at Kempton.

Dukebox was a £65,000 purchase as a yearling and being a half brother to a two year old 7f winner, helps the case that stepping up in trip will suit.

Hannon has been superb with his youngsters this season and he should keep that run going here.

The Listed Carnavon Stakes over six furlongs looks a highly competitive affair on Saturday and if more rain comes Happy Romance could be the value angle.

The three year old has been highly progressive throughout her career landing a hat-trick as a juvenile, starting in a 25 runner Class 2 at Newbury.

She then went to York in another big fielded handicap and demolished the field which saw her step up to a Group Three at Salisbury where again she got the job done in style.

The filly ended her juvenile season in the 6f Group One Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket and ran to a good standard to finish fourth of eight runners.

This season the filly returned at Newbury over 7f and did not suit the step up in trip, but last time out back at 6f she got back to winning ways at Chelmsford.

That run would have got her ready for this event and getting some cut in the ground will only be beneficial for her and against others at the top of the market.

A cracking small fielded event on the card is the Group Three Al Rayyan Stakes and we can't look past the favourite Al Aasy for William Haggas.

The four year old last year showed serious ability when winning back to back races at Newmarket over 12 and 13 furlongs, but went to Glorious Goodwood after that and flopped.

Many might have given up on the Sea The Stars colt after that, but on seasonal debut he stepped up for the Group Three Surprise Stakes over course and distance and ran out a very easy 4 1/2 lengths winner.

That sets the form standard in the race this season, wit having had a run over Logician being a major factor for us.

The Class 2 London Gold Cup Handicap over 1m2f looks a race full of potential superstars and Bay Bridge for the in form Sir Michael Stoute.

The three year old showed ability on both his starts as a juvenile, finishing third at Yarmouth on soft ground over 7f on debut.

He then went Kempton in November and finished another good fourth behind the smart Rebel's Romance for Charlie Appleby, who has since landed a Group Two in Meydan.

Back for this season he stepped up in trip on seasonal debut at Newcastle over 1m2f and got off the mark for his career in fine style landing a Novice Stakes by five lengths, beating some smart horses.

He will be sure to come on for that run and looks to be on a fair mark for his handicap debut.

Turf debut.

The feature race of the day at Newbury on Saturday is the Grade One Lockinge Stakes over a mile and there is no looking past the favourite Palace Pier.

The son of Kingman has been pretty much faultless to date, winning both his starts as a juvenile, starting at Sandown back in August winning a nice maiden and then going on to back that up over the same course and distance.

He made his seasonal debut at Newcastle on the all weather seeing off a stern effort from the Richard Fahey trained Acquitted but off the back of that he improved a massive amount to hunt down Pinatubo late in the day at Royal Ascot in the St James’s Palace Stakes.

Having four wins from four races, he put his unbeaten run on the line in the Group One Jacques Le Marois and in heavy ground cleared away from the field with the Jessica Harrington trained Alpine Star the closest to him.

That set him up perfectly for his final run of the season in the Group One Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on British Champions Day, but unfortunately he had to settle for third and lost his unbeaten record.

Back for another season this term, the four year old made his seasonal debut at Sandown on the Group Two bet365 Mile and despite only being 85% fit, powered clear of a fair field.

That would have put him spot on for this event and having won on soft ground before he looks difficult to beat.

The penultimate event on the afternoon is the Listed Fillies' Trial Stakes over 1m2f and Sea Empress for William Haggas could just be anything.

The daughter of Sea The Stars has only been seen once to date and was a very impressive winner of a Maiden Fillies' Stakes at Newcastle over a mile.

She went on to beat Teona that day who came out after that event at the same track and bolted up by nine lengths which is great form.

The filly steps up 2f today for this event and makes her turf debut, but having this specific pedigree she should suit the trip and looks a very interesting runner.

The final event of the afternoon is the mile Class 2 Handicap and with such a big field going to post we have two selections at each way prices.

The first pick for us is the Charlie Fellowes trained King Ottokar, who is a horse that needs cut in the ground and should get that on Saturday.

The five year old has been running in these types of events for a while now and although not performing to the best of ability, he has had big excuses.

At the back end of last season he finished fifth in a good handicap at Doncaster meeting trouble in running and then finished another good sixth at Ascot on Champions Day when also not getting the run of the race.

He dropped to a mark of 99 for the Lincoln Handicap on debut this season and ran no sort of race at all with the fast conditions going against him.

Now down to a career low mark of 97, getting some juice in the ground, he could spark revival

At a much bigger price the Roger Teal trained Kenzai Warrior although the outsider of the field could outrun his odds.

The four year old was smart as a juvenile winning both his events in taking fashion on both good and heavy ground, but last season in better races he struggles.

The gelding will need to spark a mini revival but dropping back to a mile having been tried over further last season is a bonus and at 20/1 is worth a chance now handicapping.