ITV Sunday Ayr And Newbury Preview - 18/04/21

Newbury - April 17 2021
Newbury 12:00
2(3)
Martin Harley

Derab

J:
 
Martin Harley
T:
 
John & Thady Gosden
Age: 3
Weight: 9-5
OR: N/A
Days: 226

The first race of the day at Newbury is the Class 4 Maiden Stakes over a mile and it looks a match up between Derab and Snow Lantern.

We are going with the John & Thady Gosden trained three year old who has a superb pedigree being a son of Sea The Stars that is a half brother to the superstar Enable.

The colt has only been seen once making his debut in a Maiden Stakes at Ascot and he finished a close second behind the smart La Barosa for Godolphin.

That horse has since gone on to frank the form by winning next time out and finishing a close second behind Master Of The Seas on Thursday in the Group Three Craven Stakes.

Solid Chance.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
06/06/21CHA10.5Sft9-28
14/05/21NMK8GS9-21
18/04/21NBY8Gd9-52
04/09/20ASC7Gd9-52
Ayr - April 17 2021
Ayr 12:15
1
Sean Bowen

Grand Sancy

J:
 
Sean Bowen
T:
 
Paul Nicholls
Age: 7
Weight: 11-12
OR: 145
Days: 22

The first race of the day at Ayr is the Scotty Brand Listed Handicap Chase and we are giving Grand Sancy one last chance in this event.

The seven year old has been hit and miss over fences this term, but over the last few years has shown serious ability over both hurdles and fences.

Over hurdles his best performance came on his final start over timber in November 2019 when winning the Grade Two Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton.

Since going over fences, he had ran behind some nice horses in good races and finally got off the mark at the back end of last season at Fontwell.

He backed that up on his seasonal debut this term when winning a three runner Listed event at Chepstow by 13 lengths, with Paint The Dream going on to frank the form.

However, since then he has slightly lost his way running in Grade Two and Three events and fading in the latter stages over 2m4f.

On Sunday he drops back in trip to just over two miles and it should hopefully spark a resurgence in form and at 9/2 agains the soft favourite we are willing to find out if it does.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
27/03/21NBY20GS11-123
06/03/21NBY20Gd11-89
07/11/20WCN20Gd11-73
10/10/20CHP19.5Gd11-21
23/02/20FON19.5Sft11-01
Newbury - April 17 2021
Newbury 14:55
5(7)
Silvestre De Sousa

Foxes Tales

J:
 
Silvestre De Sousa
T:
 
Andrew Balding
Age: 3
Weight: 9-5
OR: N/A
Days: 123

Next up is the second division of the Class 4 Maiden Stakes and the horse that takes the eye is the Andrew Balding trained Foxes Tales for King Power Racing.

This 400,000gns son of Zoffany made an exciting debut in December 2020 at Kempton over a mile when finishing a narrow behind a nice type for Sir Michael Stoute.

The third in that race has since come out and won but the Balding are hopeful that this colt can learn a lot for that experience and come on a fair bit for his turf debut.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
19/06/21ASC10Sft8-111
06/05/21CHS10.5GS9-05
18/04/21NBY8Gd9-51
16/12/20KEM8St/Slw9-52
Ayr - April 17 2021
Ayr 12:50
13
Alain Cawley

Pilbara

J:
 
Alain Cawley
T:
 
Emmet Mullins
Age: 6
Weight: 10-9
OR: 125
Days: 193

Next up is the Novices' Champion Handicap Chase over three miles and we look to have another Emmet Mullins handicap blot that could take all the beating.

Pilbara is a handy six year old that could be thrown in if finding his three mile form from the start of the campaign having slightly underperformed of late.

In July the gelding made his seasonal debut at Tipperary over hurdles in a three mile event and ran out a ready winner.

He then backed that up over the same trip at Cork and was another impressive winner, exploiting his handicap mark like most of Mullins' horses do.

The gelding then ran at Galway twice over hurdles and finished second and fifth at the back end of July and was then not seen until September where he was stepped over fences.

He finished a good second over 2m6f and then last time out back at Galway over a shorter trip he was poor, looking like the three miles is what he needed.

He gets that again today and after those two runs over fences he has a lowly mark that looks workable in this field.

Could be another Irish gamble.

Newbury - April 17 2021
Newbury 12:35
5(4)
Hollie Doyle

Outbox

J:
 
Hollie Doyle
T:
 
Archie Watson
Age: 6
Weight: 9-0
OR: 108
Days: 21

The first Group Three event of the day at Newbury is the 1m4f Suprise Stakes registered as the John Porter Stakes and Outbox for Archie Watson is a horse on an upward curve.

The six year old was formerly owned by Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum and trained by Simon Crisford and looked a smart son of Frankel.

However, after a poor run of form he was sold for 16,000gns and given to Archie Watson at the start of this year and now looks a different horses.

In March on the all weather at Wolves he landed his first race since 2018 taking out a Class 2 Handicap and last time out backed that up with another smart performance back on the turf at Doncaster.

The quicker the conditions the better for this horse and although stepping up in class he is on the upgrade and revels in running over this trip.

Seeking a hat-trick.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
10/07/21YOR14Gd9-02
26/06/21NMK12GF9-01
07/06/21LEI12GF9-112
22/05/21GOO12Sft9-14
08/05/21ASC12Sft9-04
Ayr - April 17 2021
Ayr 13:25
4
Harry Skelton

Calico

J:
 
Harry Skelton
T:
 
Dan Skelton
Age: 5
Weight: 11-3
OR: 139
Days: 35

The Grade Two Scottish Champion Hurdle sees a decent field of 10 runners head to post on Sunday and the Dan Skelton trained Calico could be tough to beat if staying on his upward curve.

The five year old gelding for the Skelton's is very much a progressive type for a thriving yard and although stepping up in class for this test can not be overlooked.

This season the youngster made his debut at Ludlow in a Novices' Hurdle and won eased down, but then was dethroned at Kempton in the Grade Two Dovecote Novices' Hurdle when Cape Gentleman just managed to get the better of him.

With that strong form in the book he went to Warwick back into a Novices' Hurdle taking on a double penalty and still managing to win.

That prep run would have set him up perfectly for this event and if progressing once more is a value angle.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
18/04/21AYR16Gd11-34
14/03/21WAR16Sft11-71
27/02/21KEM16Gd11-22
21/01/21LUD16Hy11-41
20/09/20DOR14Gd9-64
Newbury - April 17 2021
Newbury 13:10
9(5)
Jason Watson

Lucid Dreamer

J:
 
Jason Watson
T:
 
Roger Charlton
Age: 3
Weight: 9-0
OR: 90
Days: 212

The Group Three Fred Darling Stakes over seven furlongs looks a very hot affair and with that in mind we have picked out two horses at each way prices.

The first is the Roger Charlton trained Lucid Dreamer for Juddmonte and this three year old filly is currently unbeaten stepping into this season.

The daughter of Dansili made her debut as a juvenile back in August in a seven furlong event at Kempton and ran out a fairly easy winner, taking the sport straight away.

She then used that to get off the mark on her turf debut, taking out a seven furlong event over course and distance at Newbury, also on good ground.

She has not put a foot wrong on both her starts to date and if as good this season she will be tough to beat.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
18/04/21NBY7Gd9-00
18/09/20NBY7Gd8-121
12/08/20KEM7St/Slw9-01
Newbury - April 17 2021
Newbury 13:10
13(4)
Paul Hanagan

Umm Kulthum

J:
 
Paul Hanagan
T:
 
Richard Fahey
Age: 3
Weight: 9-0
OR: 110
Days: 204

At a similar price in the market the Richard Fahey trained Umm Kulthum was highly progressive on his four starts last term and could be even better this season.

The filly has been superb since starting her life on a racecourse last year, getting off the mark on her debut at Thirsk and then backing that up in the Group Two Lowther Stakes when a good third behind Miss Amulet and Sacred.

That run at York's Ebor meeting has since been franked with first and second that day since going on to run well in better races.

She dropped in grade at Ayr when winning the 15 runner the Group Three Scotty Brand Firth Of Clyde Fillies' Stakes and then went to Newmarket for a season closer.

The filly finished a superb third in the Grade One Cheveley Park Stakes over six furlongs and now stepping up in trip could be even better.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
18/04/21NBY7Gd9-08
26/09/20NMK6Gd9-03
19/09/20AYR6GS9-01
20/08/20YOR6GS9-03
29/07/20THI5Gd9-01
Ayr - April 17 2021
Ayr 14:00
2
Sean Bowen

Tamaroc Du Mathan

J:
 
Sean Bowen
T:
 
Paul Nicholls
Age: 6
Weight: 11-5
OR: 150
Days: 50

The Grade Two Future Champion Novices' Chase over 2m4f only sees four runners head to post but it is full of talent and we are siding with the Paul Nicholls trained Tamaroc Du Mathan.

The six year old was a fair hurdler last term, but is now a classy horse over fences winning two of his three outings and only being beaten by the superstar dual Grade One winner Shishkin.

He made his seasonal debut at Wincanton in a Limited Handicap Chase and his jumping was superb taking lengths out of the field at every occasion to win easily.

He then bumped into Shishkin in the Grade Two Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at Kempton where he finished a good second behind the star.

Bumped up in trip to 2m4f last time out at Kempton, the gelding flourished in the Grade Two Pendil Novices' Chase to take the event, where again his jumping was superb.

He has skipped both Cheltenham and Aintree for this and could be the value against the favourite.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
27/02/21KEM20.5Gd11-01
27/12/20KEM16Sft11-22
19/11/20WCN15.5GS11-51
14/03/20KEM21GS11-67
08/02/20NBY16.5Gd10-35
Newbury - April 17 2021
Newbury 13:45
2(8)
Pat Dobbs

Chindit

J:
 
Pat Dobbs
T:
 
Richard Hannon
Age: 3
Weight: 9-0
OR: 113
Days: 190

The feature race of the day at Newbury is the Group Three Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes over 7f and Chindit for the inform Richard Hannon team has a huge chance if as classy as he was as a juvenile.

The son of Wootton Bassett started his career off at Doncaster when landing a decent maiden and off the back of that scored again at Ascot in July.

The form of that race was been massively franked with the Second, Third and Fourth from that race since going on to win in nice company.

Chindit on his second to last run showed how good he could really be when taking his first Group race at Doncaster in the Group Two Champagne Stakes.

He was last seen in the Group One Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket when running no sort of race in classy company only being able to grab ninth, but he is obviously a top class horse.

Hopefully he will have come on a lot for being a year older and this looks a perfect starting point for the inform trainer.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
15/06/21ASC8GF9-05
01/05/21NMK8GF9-05
18/04/21NBY7Gd9-01
10/10/20NMK7Sft9-19
12/09/20DON7Gd9-01
Newbury - April 17 2021
Newbury 14:20
15(8)
Andrea Atzeni

Troll Peninsula

J:
 
Andrea Atzeni
T:
 
Roger Varian
Age: 4
Weight: 8-5
OR: 88
Days: 18

The Spring Cup Handicap over a mile sees a huge field of runners head to post and we have picked out to horses, with one win and one each way selection.

The win selection comes from Troll Peninsula for Roger Varian with the four year old gelding showing bundles of ability in his three starts to date.

He made his debut in October 2020 and finished a good second on the all weather at Newcastle over seven furlongs behind a nice type for Saeed bin Suroor.

The gelding used that debut to get off the mark next time out on his turf debut at Redcar, landing a Class 5 Maiden over seven furlongs.

Obviously a useful horse Troll Peninsula then went back on the all weather at Kempton this time over a mile and landed another nice event by close to four lengths.

That run came in March and that should give him the fitness edge on some of these runners.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
31/03/21KEM8St/Slw9-91
26/10/20RED7Sft9-51
13/10/20NCS7St/Slw9-52
Newbury - April 17 2021
Newbury 14:20
11(2)
Ryan Moore

Nugget

J:
 
Ryan Moore
T:
 
Richard Hannon
Age: 4
Weight: 8-9
OR: 92
Days: 11

At a bigger price and value price in the market is Nugget for Richard Hannon who has some great chances across the day at Newbury.

The four year old had two runs as a juvenile that showed promise, but it wasn't until last year that he truly showed how special he could be when getting off the mark on seasonal debut at Doncaster.

He then stepped up to 10f and was a fair second in a four runner event, but was immediately stepped back down to a mile at Newmarket on the July course and got back to winning ways on good to firm ground.

Back for another season, he made his return at the start of the month at Nottingham, slightly needing the run when finishing into third.

He should come on for that a fair bit and could be right in the mix.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
18/04/21NBY8Gd8-91
07/04/21NOT8.5GF9-53
24/07/20NMK8GF9-11
13/07/20WDR8GF9-72
27/06/20NMK10GF9-72
Ayr - April 17 2021
Ayr 14:35
8
Sean Bowen

Soldier Of Love

J:
 
Sean Bowen
T:
 
Paul Nicholls
Age: 8
Weight: 11-1
OR: 144
Days: 154

The feature race of the day at Ayr on Sunday is the four mile Scottish Grand National and Our selection is the Paul Nicholls trained Soldier Love, who has not been seen since November and has potentially been saved for a crack at this event.

The Ditcheat handler is always worth taking note of in this race having landed two of the last four renewals and with Sean Bowen already booked to ride this eight year old, we don't believe the 14/1 will be around on Sunday.

The son of Yeats was used through the summer last year making his seasonal debut at Bangor in July and getting off the mark in fine style.

Off the back of that run he went on to win three more races making it four in a row, with chase victories at Newton Abbot all on good ground over staying trips.

He was then taken to Cheltenham in October and finished a good runner up behind National Hunt Chase winner at the festival Galvin.

However, Soldier Of Love was last seen being pulled up at Prestbury Park in November behind The Big Breakaway who was a good winner of the event.

Having not been seen since then it looks as though Nicholls has kept his mark down for this race and with good ground being key to this horse he could have a huge chance.

The step up in trip to the National distance could bring big improvement with him already proving he is a good stayer at 3m2f and at 14/1 he looks a solid each way player if raring to go.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
05/05/21NAB26Gd12-0UR
18/04/21AYR32Gd11-1P
15/11/20CHL24.5Sft11-8P
23/10/20CHL24.5Gd11-82
19/09/20NAB26Gd12-21

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