Day Three Winter Million Lingfield Preview

The first race of the day at Lingfield sees the two mile National Hunt Flat Race over two miles on the all weather and the German raider Estacas gets our vote.

The five year old son of Galileo made his debut in this sphere at Ascot in late October when putting up a superb performance to win late on, when all hope of getting looked lost coming round the bend.

Jamie Moore takes the ride again having won on him last time out and he is running at a 30% strike rate for the last two weeks.

Trainer Andreas Wohler is another shrewd operator when having runners in England having had 18 runners in the UK during his career and he has acquired five winners and place, which is remarkable form.

Big chance if handling the all weather.

The first event over hurdles is the 2m7f Novices' Hurdle and the Dan Skelton trained Ballygrifincottage looks one of the more likelier winners.

The seven year old has been five times in his career, but only once over rules, winning three of his four P2P efforts in Ireland before being bought and moving to the Skelton's.

He was given his rules debut in a tough event at Cheltenham in the Grade Two Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at the December meeting and he went on to finish a good third behind two smart rivals.

Both Blazing Khal and Gelino Bello would be a class above this field and we find that form the strongest to go off, if Ballygrifincottage improves again and handles the ground.

A very valuable event on the card is the two mile Novices' Chase and Il Ridoto for Paul Nicholls looks to be the horse with the most potential in this field.

Il Ridoto was a decent horse in France that was bought and given to Nicholls this season and has been seen three times since joining the yard.

Making his debut at Newton Abbot, in what looked a hot affair, he massively needed the run, but showed his true potential when heading to Newbury next time out when bolting up in a Handicap Chase off a mark of 131.

Turned around quickly after that impressive effort, he was tried in Grade One company at Sandown in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase and unfortunately it did not work with him being pulled up.

However, he has been given a long enough break after that and now back in a Novices' Chase he should get back on track.

The heavy ground should be no issue for him having performed well in France in those conditions and he still has bundles of improvement left in him.

One of the big races of the day is the 2m 3 1/2f hurdles event and we have sided with the Irish raider Darver Star, who got back to form in a big way last time out.

The Gavin Cromwell trained animal was an extremely smart hurdler two seasons back, finishing third to Envoi Allen in the Grade One Royal Bond Novices' Hurdle, a half length second to Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle and then a valiant third at the Cheltenham festival behind Epatante.

Sent chasing last term, he made a nice debut but after that lost his way going nine races without a win and not handling the step up to the bigger obstacles at all.

Like all good trainers do, Cromwell last time out moved him back over hurdle at Punchestown and in heavy ground he went on to win by 30 lengths.

If back to his best he could take all the beating, but this is a tougher event.

In the feature Fleur De Lys Chase we are taking a chance on the Olly Murphy trained Itchy Feet, who should handle the softer conditions.

Having been a smart hurdler, finishing third in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle behind Klassical Dream, he has also been a decent chaser landing a first Grade One for the yard at Sandown in the Scilly Isles Chase.

Although not winning since then he has been knocking on the door in some good races and on both his runs this term he has shown a high level of form.

He made his seasonal debut in the Grade Two Old Roan Chase when a length second to the reliable Allmankind.

He then went to Haydock and took on Bravemansgame in a good match up and stayed on well to only finish 2 3/4 lengths behind him and he has since franked the form in a big way.

Itchy Feet looks underestimated in this market and can go well.

The penultimate event of the afternoon is the Surrey National Handicap Chase over a marathon trip and Pemberley for Emma Lavelle ticks a lot of boxes for us.

The nine year old is weighted to strike having been running consistently all season and is still getting weight off most of his rivals.

Since February 2020 this gelding has raced six times and has put up two thirds, three second and a win over staying trips, mostly on soft/heavy ground.

This season the likeable stayer made his seasonal debut at Lingfield finishing a good second behind the smart Fantastikas who has since franked the form.

He then went to Warwick and got off the mark for the term when landing a handicap event over three miles on soft ground off a mark of 110.

Targeted at the Sussex National at Plumpton at the start of January he plugged on well in very heavy ground to finish a valiant second.

Running off the same mark for this event makes him a huge player with plenty in his favour.

The final event of the inaugural Million Winter Festival is a competitive handicap hurdle and our eye is drawn to the Paul Nicholls trained Shearer.

The six year old showed plenty ability in his bumpers last term, performing well on his first two starts and then going to Cheltenham for the Champion Bumper and finishing a fair 10th behind some superstars.

Sent hurdling this term he has performed to a fair standard, finishing a neck second on debut at Wincanton over 2m5f and then was a decent third behind Pull Again Green and Wonderwall, with the latter franking the form.

Now handicapping off a mark of 118 it offers him a huge opportunity to get off the mark and for that reason we are siding with him.