Day One Glorious Goodwood Preview 2021

Goodwood - July 26 2021
Goodwood 12:50
14(14)
William Buick

Migration

J:
 
William Buick
T:
 
David Menuisier
Age: 5
Weight: 8-10
OR: 95
Days: 34

Migration looks well weighted ahead of the Goodwood opener and bucks several trends relating to potential race winners.

18 of the last 19 winners of this race have been aged 4 or 5 year olds, whilst 17/19 had won over the 1m 2f trip before.

Despite not having ran since 2019, Migration was a very well-backed favourite last time out on his comeback run at Salisbury and even in the face of being short of room and having plenty to do from 2f out, he ran on eye-catchingly from the rear to get within 1 1/2 lengths of 104 rated winner, Johan.

The son of Alhedayeb is entitled to come on from that run and drops from the 9 stone 7 carried that day to just 8 stone 10 for the step back up to his optimum 10f distance upon conditions seemingly looking to suit.

Trainer, David Menuisier has a highly regarded 25% strike rate at Goodwood and his employment of the talented, in form, William Buick in the saddle has made intentions very clear for the race.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
21/08/21YOR10.5Gd9-81
27/07/21GOO10Hy8-101
23/06/21SAL8GS9-84
21/09/19NBY10GF8-85
31/08/19SAN10GF8-72
Goodwood - July 26 2021
Goodwood 13:25
1(5)
Oisin Murphy

Berkshire Shadow

J:
 
Oisin Murphy
T:
 
Andrew Balding
Age: 2
Weight: 9-4
OR: 107

2 from 2, including a win in the Coventry Stakes at Ascot last time out, Berkshire Shadow looks the class angle in the Vintage and is open to further progression here.

The son of Dark Angel looks to buck several trends in the race with 9/12 past winners having gone off as favourite for the contest and 12/12 being in the markets top 3.

The runner is entitled to plenty of improvement now stepping up once more to 7f, something usual jock, Oisin Murphy, has already stated that Andrew Balding's runner should relish.

Murphy on board, in fantastic form with a 28% strike rate in the last 14 days, also possess' the third highest strike rate at Goodwood in the last 3 years with an impressive 19.21% conversion rate.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
27/07/21GOO7Sft9-42
15/06/21ASC6GF9-11
16/04/21NBY5Gd9-51
Goodwood - July 26 2021
Goodwood 14:00
10(12)
William Buick

Space Blues

J:
 
William Buick
T:
 
Charlie Appleby
Age: 5
Weight: 9-3
OR: 120

Space Blues won the Lennox Stakes in impressive fashion last year and looks to hold leading claims to repeat that feat a year on.

The son of Dubawi looks an out and out 7f specialist and a line can be drawn through that last time out run in the UAE on that basis, especially given the runner had racked up 5 straight wins prior that effort from listed to Group 1 company at the 7f trip.

Much like his trainer, Charlie Appleby, who has the industry leading 28.57% strike rate at Goodwood in the last 3 years, Space Blues looks to relish the track, and with conditions seemingly looking to suit, he is once again expected to take this one, played as a confident win bet.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
27/07/21GOO7Sft9-34
27/03/21MEY6Gd9-59
20/02/21JAN7GF9-01
09/08/20DEA6.5Gd9-41
28/07/20GOO7Gd9-31
Goodwood - July 26 2021
Goodwood 14:35
10(1)
Frankie Dettori

Stradivarius

J:
 
Frankie Dettori
T:
 
John & Thady Gosden
Age: 7
Weight: 9-9
OR: 121
Days: 40

Having won the Goodwood Cup for the last 4 years running, punters worldwide will all be backing Stradivarius to record a famous 5-timer in the race, regardless of betting interests.

The now 7 year-olds retirement from racing remains up in the air, however his record over the 2 mile distance and at Goodwood is incomparable, giving him solid leading claims in the contest in spite of any age concerns.

Usual rider, Frankie Dettori, is re-employed in the saddle who will be looking to set the story straight after encountering traffic problems last time out at Ascot.

Both Dettori and trainer duo John & Thady Gosden, are in great form currently, each with 20%+ strike rates in the last 14 days.

Goodwood - July 26 2021
Goodwood 14:35
1(4)
James Doyle

Amhran Na Bhfiann

J:
 
James Doyle
T:
 
A P O'Brien
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
OR: 112
Days: 30

This is the first time Stradivarius has gone into a Goodwood Cup on the back of a loss so it appears a small and speculative, each way play be worth a go in this race.

The tentative vote of confidence goes towards Aidan O'Brien runner, Amhran Na Bhifiann who made essentially all last time out in the Group 2 Curragh Cup before winning by an eventual 7 length margin.

A 1.3million guineas purchase as a yearling, the runner will want a strong pace to aim at in the contest and Aidan O'Brien has already stated he would prefer Amhran Na Bhifann to come from off the pace this time around otherwise he'll be forced into dictating once more.

Initial instincts are that that strong pace may just come from stablemate, Serpentine, should he make a quick enough rush to the front.

The son of Galileo is rapidly on the upgrade after a short 2020 season and progression up at 2 miles looks like it should suit should he get the correct race tempo.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
12/09/21CUR14Gd9-110
13/08/21CUR14Y10-28
27/07/21GOO16Sft9-98
27/06/21CUR14GF9-131
17/06/21ASC20GF9-10
Goodwood - July 26 2021
Goodwood 15:10
3(15)
Joe Fanning

Desert Safari

J:
 
Joe Fanning
T:
 
Mark Johnston
Age: 4
Weight: 9-0
OR: 96
Days: 11

Desert Safari for Mark Johnston is a past C&D winner at the track and the form from that win in May looks strong given the 2nd home Stone of Destiny, rated 104, has gone onto achieve a very respectable midfield finish in Group 1 company and 4th in the Group 3 Coral Charge since.

Desert Safari, on the other hand, has seemingly not kicked on since that win however, with lesser runs on unsuited rain softened ground, the all weather and at a less optimal 6f trip.

The return to fast ground over 5f at Goodwood looks sure to suit and the runner bucks several key race trends with 5 of the last 6 winners being aged between 4-5 years old and rated between 88-98 whilst carrying 9 stone or less in weight.

Progeny of Slade Power have an impressive 20%+ strike rate and 50%+ place rate in sprints at Goodwood and Desert Safari looks to have a prominent run style well suited to the course.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
18/08/21YOR5.5Gd9-38
07/08/21ASC5GS9-62
31/07/21GOO6Sft8-127
27/07/21GOO5Sft9-03
16/07/21HAM6Gd9-110
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Goodwood - July 26 2021
Goodwood 15:45
7(2)
Ryan Moore

Monet's Sunrise

J:
 
Ryan Moore
T:
 
Richard Hannon
Age: 2
Weight: 9-0
OR: N/A

Trainer, Richard Hannon, won this race in 2015 & 2018 and is represented this year by entrant, Monet's Sunrise who despite having never ran before, holds decent claims in this.

It's interesting to see the employment of the talented Ryan Moore on board Hannon's entrant who has a 31% strike rate in the last 14 days and is the same jockey who was employed when Hannon last won this race in 2018.

What is of further interest is the record of sire Le Havre's runners at Goodwood whom have placed 5 times in just 7 runs in Goodwood sprints, a 71.4% return.

Should Monet's Sunrise not race too green on debut, he can assert himself at a track and upon conditions expected to play to his strengths.

Goodwood - July 26 2021
Goodwood 16:20
5(6)
Rob Hornby

Pomelo

J:
 
Rob Hornby
T:
 
Ralph Beckett
Age: 3
Weight: 9-5
OR: 89
Days: 39

Ralph Beckett is in great form currently with a 20%+ strike rate in the last 14 days.

He'll be hoping to keep that run of form going at Goodwood through his entrant Pomelo who has won 2 of her opening 4 runs including an emphatic 5 length win on debut.

Her 2 poor runs have both come upon unsuited soft/heavy ground and the return to better ground is likely to see her back at her best after her seasonal re-appearance last time out in the Ascot Sandringham stakes by which she takes a drop in grade from to be competitive here.

She's entitled to have come on for that run for race fitness whilst she's impressively bred out of Dubawi and Group 1 winning miler, Emulous.

Progeny of Dubawi have a highly touted 20% strike rate over the mile at Goodwood and a 52% place rate, thereby further heightening her chances.

DateCourseDistanceTypeWeightPosition
18/06/21ASC8Hy8-80
21/11/20WOL8.5St9-71
29/08/20GOO7Sft9-05
19/07/20NBY7Gd9-01
Goodwood - July 26 2021
Goodwood 16:50
4(6)
Marco Ghiani

Gellhorn

J:
 
Marco Ghiani
T:
 
Stuart Williams
Age: 4
Weight: 9-1
OR: 84
Days: 11

The Stuart Williams trained, Gellhorn, looked to have plenty in hand when keeping on well to win last time out at Newmarket.

A 4lb rise in the weights looks lenient in the context and she can re-affirm those placings with the re-opposing Lovely Breeze here at Goodwood.

Marco Ghiani retains the ride on board and he comes into the race in great form holding a 23% strike rate in the last 14 days.

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