Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Trends

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Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Trends 2022

The second race on day two of the festival is the old RSA chase, now named the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase, which is a Grade One event over three miles for novice chasers.

Over the years there has been some cracking renewals from Might Bite and Whisper to Champ coming from the clouds to pip Allaho and Minella Indo.

This year’s contest could yield another thorough stayer to keep onside come the 2023 Gold Cup and the stand out trends could help us find them early.

Stat One

The first place to start with building a shortlist for this race is with age, 12 of the previous 15 winners have been aged seven.

Immediately it gives us a strong platform to build around, but it is worth noting that 2020 winner Champ was eight years of age.

However, the younger horses are normally the way forward with the likes of Jungle Boogie, Fury Road, Run Wild Fred and Beacon Edge all slightly vulnerable.

Stat Two

Couple the seven year olds with the apparent class benchmark and you’ll start to narrow the field even further.

All of the last 15 winners have been rated 144 or more.

They’re aren’t many currently in the betting below the threshold, but when the field is down to the declarations put lines through those falling below the 144 mark.

It would appear the novice chase division is fairly strong this season.

Stat Three

Coming into the festival on form looks pivotal again as 13 of the last 15 winners came to Cheltenham off a top two finish last time out.

Try to avoid those who aren’t coming into the race on form, but once again 2020 winner Champ goes against this trend having fell on his previous start before the race, but normality was resumed by Monkfish last year.

This trend would hinder Capodanno's chances having unseated his rider last time out, but currently the top five horses in the market all won last time out.

Class tells.

Stat Four

Previous spring festival experience doesn't appear to be of huge benefit coming into the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase.

10 of the last 15 winners hadn’t contested at the previous year’s Punchestown festival.

Plus, 11 of the previous 15 winners hadn’t contested at the previous year’s Aintree Festival.

It might not be of upmost importance, but it would suggest that having festival form from Aintree or Punchestown specifically aren’t good pointers here.

Stat Five

Hurdle form is something to keep onside here, 10 of the previous 14 winners had won a graded hurdle race.

Apparent quality over the smaller obstacles appears to carry over to the bigger obstacles in this race.

Proven Grade One ability stands out with Galopin Des Champs, Bob Olinger, Bravemasngame and Ahoy Senor all bring some solid black type hurdle form to the table, where as L'Homme Presse would be struggling on this front.

Be wary of those who didn’t have much of a career over hurdles as they might not have had enough exposure to top class opposition.

Stat Six

Course form makes an important appearance in the profile of likely winners in this race as 13 of the last 15 winners had at least one previous run at Cheltenham.

Eight of those had at least one previous win at Cheltenham.

Look for entrants who have come to the course before and showed themselves well with Monkfish last year winning this race having won the Albert Bartlett the year before.

Four previous winners had already run in a chase around Cheltenham and three of those had won.

Keep course form onside, it could pay dividends.

Stat Seven

A few key races to remember are the Flogas Novice’s Chase at Leopardstown, last season won by superstar Monkfish who went on to take this event, current favourite this term Galopin Des Champs took this race last time out.

The Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot is also usually another race that gives the event a clearer picture, but over the last few years it has become less of an influence and it looks the same this season.

These two races alone have yielded 9 of the last 15 winners, look for those placing in these key trials.

Don’t discount those who ran in the Albert Bartlett last season either.

The attritional three mile hurdle race at the festival has had seven of its previous runners go on to win the three mile event in the last 12 years.

Monkfish won the Albert Bartlett last season and won this the season after.

Value Angle

This year’s renewal looks to be one that all depends on whether certain horses come here or go to the Turners' Novices' Chase.

One horse who ticks a lot of the trend boxes and is definitely going for this race is Bravemansgame for Paul Nicholls, having won a Grade One over hurdles and has already had a previous run at the Cheltenham festival.

If Galopin Des Champs and Bob Olinger do turn up to the Turners' then it leaves the race at his mercy and he will certainly be shorter than his current 7/4.

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