Coral Cup Trends

Cheltenham

Coral Cup Trends

The Coral Cup is a grade 3 handicap hurdle for horses aged 4 or older.

The 2 mile 5 furlong trip asks for a good blend of stamina and speed to be competitive.

William Henry got up on the line last year to deny old boy Wicklow Brave.

The stats and trends below could hopefully lead to one at a nice price for the first handicap of day 2 of the festival.

Stat One

Firstly with the handicaps it’s good to establish the ideal bracket of ratings you need to focus on.

All of the last 13 winners were rated 128-153.

Although initially quite a general bracket, it should give you an idea of what will actually get into the race come the entries.

Anything below 128 isn’t going to be guaranteed a spot.

The 11 previous winners have been rated between 135-153.

Again pretty general, but 133 was bottom weight last year so this bracket at least holds likelihood of getting into the race.

Narrowing it down further 10 of the 11 were rated between 139-153.

The latter should be your main guide into getting into the race and being competitive.

Stat Two

With this being a handicap, runners keeping their marks down is beneficial.

12 of the last 13 winners had four or fewer runs that season.

Keep the lightly raced sorts onside as they’re less likely to have been captured by the grips of the handicapper.

More than 4 runs and they might be on an unworkable mark.

Stat Three

Form is something to keep in mind coming into the Coral Cup as eight of the last 13 winners had placed top two in their prep run.

Despite the fact that a raise in the weights is likely for a podium finish, having a decent run behind them does look to be beneficial.

Don’t necessarily write off those who’ve had a recent rise in the weights for a good run.

Stat Four

Try not to get too caught up in previous festival form it could be potentially misleading here.

12 of the last 13 winners had never previously run at the Aintree festival and nine of the 13 had never previously run at the Cheltenham festival.

Additionally, eight of the 13 winners had never previously run at the Punchestown festival.

Running in the big profile festivals isn’t always a good pointer as to how they will do in this race.

Stat Five

To further support the cases of those who aren’t exposed, 11 of the last 13 winners had 10 or less hurdle runs to their name.

Not enough time for the handicapper to have really found them out but enough experience to handle a big festival race.

The 2 from out of the trend both had over 20 hurdle runs to their name, so the more exposed types don’t get their noses in front here often.

Stat Six

Stamina is an important component to factor in as eight of the last 13 winners had previously won over two mile and three furlongs.

Being proven at getting the trip looks a massive plus when drawing up shortlists.

Don’t make the assumption that your pick will last the extended two and a half miles, they could find the petrol tank ticking empty when they turn for home.

In the last 10 years, six of the winners were proven winners over at least two and a half miles.

To further scout out those with the needed ability for this race, nine of the last 13 winners had taken a class 2 hurdle.

When the entries come out, look for those performing at or above the class 2 threshold.

If they’re winning at that sort of level they’ll be more likely to be able to get competitive here.

Stat Seven

Something to keep in mind is none of the last 12 winners have been the favourite and only two of those 12 have been top three in the betting.

Don’t let the market guide your selection too much.

Value Angle

It’s quite early for the handicaps and we don’t have any entries just yet.

One that could go here at a decent non-runner no bet price is The Cashel Man for Nicky Henderson.

He took a good class 2 handicap hurdle at Newbury and fell just short behind Thyme Hill in the Challow Hurdle next time out.

He recently had a spin over just shy of three miles and at odds of 1/6 was only awarded the race in the stewards room.

He’s got a mark of 147 so will definitely get in if this becomes a target.

He’s entered in the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett but is huge odds for both fo them.

25/1 is a fair enough each way price should he turn out here come March.

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