Coral Cup Trends

Cheltenham

Coral Cup Trends 2022

The opening handicap of day two of the festival is the Coral Cup.

The Grade 3 contest open to four year olds and above is contested over 2 miles and 5 furlongs, it lends itself to a perfect combination of tactical speed and staying ability.

The big field handicaps can be daunting but using the stats and trends over the last few years can help build a solid profile for one to go close in this competitive race.

Let's see if we can find the winners.

Stat One

With the handicaps the opening place to start is with official ratings.

All of the last 14 winners were rated between 128 and 153.

All of the last 12 winners were rated 135-153.

11 of those 13 were rated 139-153.

Five of the last six winners have been rated 140-151.

This gives us a bracket to work with. 10 of the last 12 winners were rated 140 or higher, this looks to be the bare minimum rating.

Anything much above 150 looks to be too overexposed to get competitive.

A 140-150 official rating looks to be the sweet spot, although last year's winner was off 138 as an exception.

Stat Two

Age is an all important trend in most races and can help narrow the field down further here.

12 of the last 13 winners were aged 5-8 years old.

10 of the last 13 winners were aged 5-7 years old.

It’s quite broad but gives a good starting point for cutting through the field.

The only exception to this was 2019 winner William Henry aged nine pulled off a shock victory.

The older horses look to be too exposed to get competitive in this handicap.

Shift focus to the highlighted bracket, younger horses are more prolific here.

Stat Three

Previous Cheltenham form is something that is normally high on the list of things to look for when picking one for the festival races.

10 of the last 15 winners of the Coral Cup didn’t run at the previous Cheltenham Festival, but on the other hand 11 of the last 15 winners had never previously won around Cheltenham.

It seems counterintuitive, but don’t go searching for course winners specifically.

It can be misleading in this contest.

Dame De Compagnie and Heaven Help Us was a rare exception to the rule. 

Stat Four

To further add to the previous comment about overexposed horses, 12 of the last 15 winners of the Coral Cup had 10 or less hurdle runs to their name.

While having a healthy amount of experience under them, they aren’t fully exposed and aren't yet in the grip of the handicapper.

Heaven Help Us was making her 13th appearance over hurdles in last year's renewal when winning from the front.

There are exceptions to the rule.

Stat Five

Distance form is highly important with this kind of trip. 11 of the last 13 winners had at least one run over 19-21 furlongs, with eight of those 11 notching a win over 19-21 furlongs.

It looks imperative to have tried a 2.5 mile trip before going for this. Don’t leave stamina up to assumption, the stiff 2 miles and 5 furlongs takes some getting.

Look for those who have tried 2.5 miles and run well.

With only eight of the last 13 winning, don’t get hugely caught up in winning over the trip. More so ensure they got the distance well and are likely to still be travelling up the Cheltenham hill.

Stat Six

Finally, 11 of the last 15 winners had won at least one Class 2 hurdle.

Start to sieve through the field for class. If they’ve struggled in company in class 2 and above they might not have the quality to be competitive in this.

Class tells at the festival. Be wary of horses floundering in Class 2 races or Grade 3 events.

Punter Warning

Dame De Compagnie is the only favourite to win in the last 13 renewals.

Only two of the last 13 winners were top three in the betting.

11 of the 13 winners were an SP of 12/1 or bigger.

Don’t get too sucked in by the market. Dame De Compagnie was a rare SP favourite to confirm betting support in 2020.

Value Angle

A horse we think is big value in the current ante-post markets for the Coral Cup is the Philip Hobbs and JP McManus owned Camprond who has not been seen since November.

The six year old is a Grade Two winner, a twice raced runner at Cheltenham, winning and placing at the track this season over 2m4f and 2m.

His make of 140 ticks the boxes of the bracket of what the last few winners of the race have been in and overall he looks a solid candidate, that could be better than that mark.

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