Champion Bumper Trends

malone road bumper cheveley park
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Champion Bumper Trends

The championship race for the younger horses contesting over the national hunt flat scene this season.

The Champion Bumper can drop clues to potential future superstars to come.

Envoi Allen took the race last year and is currently unbeaten over hurdles.

2016 winner Ballyandy has suddenly emerged as a potential Champion Hurdle contender.

Below the stats and trends could help point to another potential superstar.

Stat One

First off, all of the previous 13 winners had won on their previous start before lining up in the Champion Bumper.

Coming into the festival on form is a must, be ready to start putting lines through those who didn’t notch up a win in their prep run.

Three of those 13 actually had their prep win on their racecourse debut.

So don’t always discount those with a seeming lack of experience. The other 10 came in off the back of form figures reading 1-1 or 2-1.

Keep those in form onside.

Stat Two

Age plays an important factor here as 12 of the last 13 winners were aged five or six years old.

Be wary of any precocious four year olds taking to the field in the champion bumper.

Cue Card is the only four year old to break the recent trends.

But, in the last decade there have been 27 four year old runners in the champion bumper and only one has won.

Stat Three

As with most of these condition races you can establish a class barrier and all of the last 12 winners were rated 118 or higher.

This should give us the benchmark to work with.

The lowest in the last five years has been 120 but it has ranged as high as 134.

Setting your class bracket from around the 120 rated mark should see you on the right side of talent.

Anything rated lower could struggle for class.

Stat Four

Breeding becomes an important factor for this race as 11 of the last 13 winners have been Irish or British bred.

Look for those bred on home soil, rather than those bred in France or further afield in Europe.

Envoi Allen and Cheltenian are the only 2 who break the trend, both of which were French bred. But clearly the stats favour those bred on this side of the English Channel.

Stat Five

Breeding further shows it’s prominence in the previous winners as nine of the last 13 winners had been sired by a Group One winner on the flat.

Being bred in the purple is a handy attribute to have, so look for those who have quality in their breeding.

They’ll be more likely to handle the top class challenge that this race provides.

Stat Six

Finally, only five of the last 12 winners were from the top three in the betting.

Try not to let the market guide you too much when making a selection for the Champion Bumper as unfortunately it can be quite misleading.

For the most part, trainers don’t even know what their best entry in the race may be and we’ve seen this with what is seemingly a fourth string for the stable win.

For example, Relegate was Mullins’ fourth string in the betting in 2018 but was tenacious to win the race by a neck and hold off stablemate Carefully Selected.

Value Angle

In the ante-post market, Appreciate it is a rock solid favourite at around 7/4.

His win in the Grade Two bumper at Leopardstown was spellbinding and he would appear to have the race at his mercy.

It’s quite a short price to be plugging into for such a cagey race that can yield surprises.

At the prices, Israel Champ would appeal more at a general 10/1 for an each way play.

He’s won a course and distance bumper and backed it up at Ascot under a penalty.

Double figure prices look more than generous for the son of Milan.

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