The finale of the second day of the festival sees the best of the national hunt bumper horses fight it out to be the top jumps flat horse for the season.
Last year saw a superb renewal with Willie Mullins dominating proceedings with a 1-2 of Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit battling it out up the hill.
No doubt it creates potential superstars, but to find them we have a list of trends and stats that could help us unearth the next gem for the novice hurdle division.
A strong starting point with profile building is age. 14 of the last 15 winners of the Champion Bumper have been five or six years old. It’s a strong starting platform to build from.
Most of the market principles this year are 5 or 6 years old with the exception being Mercurey for Mullins and Rich Ricci who is currently four.
The four year old would have to follow in Cue Card’s footsteps to be the only other four year old winner in recent memory.
Time to physically develop looks key as this is a difficult test and needs a high level of mental fortitude.
Form is an important trend to follow and that is immediately highlighted as all of the last 15 winners of the Bumper won their prep race.
Look for those who have that all important one next to their name.
This even includes the three winners who had just one previous start prior to the Champion Bumper. Coming in off the back of a win would appear to be essential.
Trim the fat by only giving serious chances to those who won last time out.
An outside area to focus on is the breeding of the entrants for the bumper. 10 of the last 15 winners were sired by a Group One winner on the flat.
Look for those who have class in their blood. A top sire on the flat appears to be churning out top class national hunt flat horses too.
This Grade One contest shows that class does tell.
Ferny Hollow and Envoi Allen both ticked this box, but Sir Gerhard's Sire was only a Group Two winner.
Further leaning into the class angle, all of the last 13 winners were rated 118 or more.
Again this trims the field down and gives an established class barrier to build from.
Five of the last six winners have been rated 124+.
Note: Ratings of the firs two home in 2021;
Sir Gerhard 132
Kilcruit 139
Official ratings can be a strong pointer in the bumper.
Adding to the breeding of the winners, 13 of the last 15 winners were Irish or British bred.
It could be useful to keep in mind the breeding of the runners, three of the first four home last year were all Irish bred horses.
Be wary of those bred outside of Britain and Ireland.
Finally, don’t get too caught up with the market vibes in the bumper. Only two of the last 13 favourites have won the race.
Quite simply it is wide open and most of the field is wide open to improve rapidly between runs.
Moon Racer and Envoi Allen are the only two recent favourites to win the race. Appreciate It was 15/8 favourite two years ago only to be beaten by a less fancied stablemate.
Furthermore, only six of the last 13 were top three in the betting. The market isn’t always the most accurate guide.
Be wary if fancying seriously backing the favourite, the stats aren't in their favour.
Look for previous wins, strong breeding and the right age bracket.
American Mike is the value angle with Facile Vega a 4/5 favourite and although a deserved market leader, at 5/2 American Mike has done nothing wrong and hits most of the trends.
