Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle Trends


Joe Glayshier | @joeglayshier

Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle Trends 2024

Day two of the festival opens with novice hurdlers competing over 2 miles and 5 furlongs.

Superstars like Faugheen and Envoi Allen have taken this race in years gone by and last year the race was won impressively by Impaire Et Passe.

This has been a race dominated by favourites over the last few years and we will be looking whether the stats and trends point us in the direction of another one.

Stat One

The Baring Bingham Novice Hurdle, formerly known as the Ballymore, has been a good place for Irish trainer Willie Mullins in the last couple of renewals. Impaire Et Passe won this contest last year by over six lengths, a year on from stablemate Sir Gerhard winning it in 2022 by just over three lengths to Three Stripe Life.

They were both favourites to win the contest, with six of the last twelve winners of this race being the market leader before race day. Ten out of the 12 winners have been in the top three of the betting, which could bode well for market leader Ballyburn (Willie Mullins), who looks to be aimed at the Supreme rather than this one and second favourite Slade Steel, trained by Henry De Bromhead.

Stat Two

Ten of the last 12 winners of the Baring Bingham (Ballymore) won on their last run leading up to the festival, which will have runners like Ballyburn (if he runs in the race and not the supreme) and Readin Tommy Wrong (again, if he runs in this one) licking their lips having won on their most recent outing which is almost certainly going to be their last before the festival.

The last horse to win this race without winning on their most recent outing leading up to this contest was The New One, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, all the way back in 2013, over ten years ago. This year’s second favourite Slade Steel finished second to Ballyburn on his last outing, so he may have to overcome a common trend to claim victory this year.

Stat Three

11 of the last 12 winners of the Baring Bingham Novice Hurdle have been aged five or six. The one instance where this has not been the case came in 2022 when Willie Mullins won with his then seven-year-old Sir Gerhard.

As for this year, the likes of Ballyburn (aged six), Slade St eel (aged six) and Mystical Power (aged five) can follow that trend by taking victory in the contest, providing they end up running here.

Those three horses all currently head the betting about a month prior to post time.

Stat Four

Another stat that bodes well for some of the market headers in this year’s renewal of the Baring Bingham Novice Hurdle is the fact that all 12 of the previous winners had won at least once during that season, leading up to their participation in this contest.

The only runner in the last 12 years to have won just once that term was Windsor Park for Dermot Weld and Davy Russell, who won a maiden hurdle contest at Leopardstown in December 2014 before scoring in this race in March 2015.

This trend looks good for the three market leaders, all of whom have won this season already, some more than once.

Stat Five

All 12 of the last 12 winners of this 2m 5f hurdle race have been rated by the BHA 146 or higher. The lowest rated of those runners was Windsor Park, who as mentioned above won the 2015 version of the Baring Bingham whilst being rat6ed at 146.

The next two in the ratings would be the 147-rated pair of City Island for Martin Brassil and Mark Walsh in 2019 and Willoughby Court for Ben Pauling and David Bass in 2017.

This year’s favourite Ballyburn has been given a rating of 153 ahead of whatever race Willie Mullins sends him to. It is very likely that he will head to the Supreme rather than the Baring Bingham.

Value Angle -Readin Tommy Wrong

The top two in the market currently for Willie Mullins are Ballyburn and Mystical Power, and with question marks over who runs in what novice hurdle race still around, I have gone for Readin Tommy Wrong in the hope he runs here.

Mullins has won the last two renewals of this and this six-year-old goes into the Baring Bingham unbeaten, having won two bumpers at Ballinrobe and Tipperary before scoring on hurdle debut in a Cork maiden in November last year.

He came on for that run by winning the G1 Lawlor’s Of Naas in January by a neck to stablemate Ile Atlantique and he beat some good novices that day in the hands of Daryl Jacob.

He’s 6/1 for the Baring Bingham and if he ends up here he could run a very big race at a very

attractive price.