Rogue Temptation 7/1 - 12:40 Lingfield
First, her form is not without merit. She has shown she can be competitive in her earlier runs as she landed a 6f novice in July, and in her nursery debut on she ran a strong third, catching the eye with her finishing effort. That suggests that, on her day, she can pick up pace late and finish well.
Second, there is a likely bounce-back factor. Her most recent run was disappointing, but that extra distance may not have suited her so dropping back to 6 on Polytrack could be more in her comfort zone. Also, the fact blinkers are being used suggests her trainer is trying to sharpen her up.
Sometimes that kind of gear change helps a horse focus better and rediscover its form. Third, in a six-runner field she doesn’t need an extreme performance to make up ground. There are a few higher-profile rivals (Lightning Polka, Ten Carat Harry, Noble Vow), but Rogue Temptation’s official rating (82) is not dramatically out of line with the leading horses.
And in a small field, tactical things like pace, break, and positioning can yield extra advantage. If the early fractions are honest a horse with a decent middle section run and a finishing turn which she’s shown on past run can sneak into the frame or even beyond.
