Supreme Novices Hurdle Trends

The opening of the festival. The best of the two mile novice hurdlers gathered to take on one another, with the Irish and British set to do battle.

The Supreme is always a wonderfully competitive opening to the greatest show on turf, having seen winners like Altior, Douvan, Vatour, Shishkin and Constitution Hill in the past.

As usual it’s quite a muddling race to start picking through the form of and the clues this year are still unfolding, even at this stage of the season.

But with clues from previous runnings of the race you can start to build a profile of a likely sort to carry your money in the festival’s curtain raiser. 

First and foremost 11/12 winners of the Supreme have been aged five or six, with not many four year olds running in the event with the Triumph being their usual target.

It builds a solid foundation to start with, the only winner out of this bracket being Appreciate It who went on to win by 24 lengths at the age of seven and was a rare anomaly to this rule.

Asian Master, Farren Glory, Helvic Dream, Western Diego, Shoot The Blues and Lookaway are all 7 years old and above the age bracket, Kimy is the only 4 year old entry.

Another fairly obvious but equally important trend to factor in is the form of the horse coming into the race. 11/12 winners had won their previous start before wining up in the Supreme, shock winner Labaik proving the only exception to this rule recently.

It’s clearly a rare occasion for a horse not to win it’s warm up race for the Supreme, so it would pay to be wary of anything coming into the race without an all important 1 next to it’s name. 

A competitive looking year sees all three of the market leaders come into the Supreme off the back of a win, Ballyburn, Mystical Power and Jeriko Du Reponet all being in top form heading into the Festival.

Digging deeper into the profiles of the previous winners you can start to paint an even clearer picture and a good amount of race experience looks to be vital.

11/12 winners had two previous wins in the national hunt code before coming here. Furthermore 10/12 had notched three previous runs over hurdles before tackling this Grade One event.

Being battled hardened would look to be a big asset, as would the runner having a good line of 1’s in the form book.

It should make you wary of anything with not many races under their belt.

There’s a few runners this can scratch out not fitting the profile, again one of them being No Flies On Him on having one run over hurdles. Another strong tick for both Ballyburn and Mystical Power for Willie Mullins who have strengthened their festival credentials recently.

There's a clear class angle in the Supreme to play into with 10/12 winners being rated 148 or higher before going for hotly contested Novice Event.

The exceptions to this are again Labaik and Cinders And Ashes who both won the Supreme at big prices of 25/1 and 10/1 respectively. It can pay to keep those onside who've proven themselves through the season and achieved a higher rating.

Nicky Henderson's Jeriko Du Reponet has only managed to achieve a rating of 132 in his three starts over hurdles and might just be exposed to a higher quality of rival who's closer to or above the noted threshold.

Constitution Hill for Nicky Henderson is the most recent proven exception to the rule that only 4/12 of the last favourites/joint favourites have won the race.

Although the Supreme has been a race that has seen some superb winners of the event who have gone on to have stellar careers, the SP favourite has gone on to fall short in the race. Appreciate It, Vautor and Douvan the only other winners to justify their favouritism in the recent runnings.

This rule proved true last season with Facile Vega being sent off favourite, despite a poor showing at the Dublin Racing Festival, but finding Marine Nationale too good on the day.

Another interesting angle to keep onside is the breeding of the runners.

14/16 winners were of Irish or French breeding, coupled with the statistic that 11/15 winners’ sire had a Group One or Group Two win on the flat makes lineage of importance.

Being bred in the purple seemingly gives a competitive edge, it obviously brings a touch of class to the runner that their sire was of the top quality on the level.

Constitution Hill broke this trend last year being a son on Blue Bresil.

The value angle in the Supreme this year looks to be Caldwell Potter who fits most the trends having been French bred, seen winning twice this year including winning his second start over hurdles and winning a Grade One at Leopardstown at Christmas in emphatic fashion.

He has not been seen since that win but has recently changed hands for an eye-watering €740,000 making him the most expensive public auctioned National Hunt horse ever purchased and joining Paul Nicholls' yard.

A general 12/1 NRNB makes him a solid ante-post each way selection with his form looking strong and joining a top English yard to continue his training.