Supreme Novices Hurdle Trends

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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2022

The opening of the festival. The best of the two mile novice hurdlers gathered to take on one another, with the Irish and British set to do battle.

The Supreme is always a wonderfully competitive opening to the greatest show on turf, having seen winners like Altior, Douvan, Vatour and Shishkin in the past.

As usual it’s quite a muddling race to start picking through the form of and the clues this year are still unfolding, even at this stage of the season.

But with clues from previous runnings of the race you can start to build a profile of a likely sort to carry your money in the festival’s curtain raiser. 

Stat One

First and foremost 13/15 winners of the Supreme have been aged five or six, with not many four year olds running in the event, with the last being Fakir D'Oudairies in 2019.

It builds a solid foundation to start with, but last year Appreciate It who was out of the age bracket went on to win by 24 lengths at the age of seven.

Horses like Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard are also seven year of age and although that was overturned last year, the younger horses have a better record.

Stat Two

Another fairly obvious but equally important trend to factor in is the form of the horse coming into the race. 13/15 winners had won their previous start before wining up in the supreme.

It’s clearly a rare occasion for a horse not to win it’s warm up race for the Supreme, so it would pay to be wary of anything coming into the race without an all important 1 next to it’s name. 

Three Stripe Life, Shallwehaveonemore and I Like To Move It on the basis on this stat are opposable.

Stat Three

Digging deeper into the profiles of the previous winners you can start to paint an even clearer picture and a good amount of race experience looks to be vital.

11/15 winners had three previous wins in the national hunt code before coming here. Furthermore 8/15 had notched four previous wins before tackling this Grade One event.

Being battled hardened would look to be a big asset, as would the runner having a good line of 1’s in the form book.

It should make you wary of anything with only a couple of races under their belt.

There’s plenty of runners this can scratch out not fitting the profile.

Even ones still looking in the mix of the ante-post markets like Bring On The Night who looks a bit vulnerable with his lack of racecourse experience.

Stat Four

A clear aptitude for the game seems to resound within the previous winners as 12/15 had placed 1st or 2nd on their seasonal comeback.

This seems a very solid trend as the majority of those in the ante-post betting snagged a top two finish on their first time out for the campaign.

Stat Five

Constitution Hill for Nicky Henderson will be looking to prove an exception to the rule that only 3/14 of the last favourites/joint favourites have won the race.

Although the Supreme has been a race that has seen some superb winners of the event, the favourites have gone on to fall short and come alive at later stages in their careers

Appreciate It was an exception to the rule last year bolting up by 24 lengths last year.

Stat Six

Another interesting angle to keep onside is the breeding of the runners.

14/15 winners were of Irish or French breeding, coupled with the statistic that 11/15 winners’ sire had a Group One or Group Two win on the flat makes lineage of importance.

Being bred in the purple seemingly gives a competitive edge, it obviously brings a touch of class to the runner that their sire was of the top quality on the level.

This sees the favourite Constitution Hill struggling with his Sire not offering a lot during his racing career.

Value Angle

Constitution Hill looks to be a serious animal for Nicky Henderson and owner Michael Buckley, with the £120,000 purchase making an extremely taking rules debut at Sandown in December.The five year old had been seen once in a point to point before his rules debut, when finishing a head second in what might turn out to be a smart P2P.Heading to Sandown in a Novices' Hurdle, he cruised next to the favourite Might I for Harry Fry, who is a good horse in his own right, and having jumped the last impeccably he went on to take the event by 14 lengths.This saw Constitution Hill go from a 40/1 outsider for this race to a general 4/1 second favourite.Seen once more since then he managed to land Grade One glory in the Tolworth Hurdle winning just as impressively as his previous, pulling away from a decent field to win by 12 lengths.He looks a freak of a horse and although needing to improve again, he looks the one to beat.

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