Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Stats & Trends 2025

Date: Tuesday 6th March

Time: 1.20pm

Excitement levels will be high ahead of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, as the Grade One kicks off the day with the backdrop of the Cheltenham Roar.

The best novice hurdlers over two miles will contest the opening race at the Cheltenham Festival, with runners aged four and older competing on the Old Course.

There have been some unforgettable moments in the race’s history, but perhaps none more so than Constitution Hill’s romp of a talented field in 2022. But, who could be the next runner to add their name to the plethora of greats?

The stats show that five and six year olds have the dominant advantage in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Only one seven-year-old has won the race since 2013, with Appreciate It landing success for Willie Mullins in 2021.

Success for horses aged six has been fairly regular since 2016, with six winners of that age being crowned. Among those was last year’s victor Slade Steel for the team of Henry De Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore.

All of the last 20 winners of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have made at least two starts over a 12-month period. Meanwhile, ten winners of the Supreme since 2013 have recorded a victory on their final start before lining up at Cheltenham.

Notable prep races include the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle, which has produced five winners in 12 renewals, while the Tolworth Hurdle has produced two victors over the same period.

Unlike other races at the Festival, Cheltenham experience is not essential when considering the runners for the Supreme. Only four of the last 12 winners have made prior starts at the course, with just two over the same period winning at the home of jumps racing.

Previous runs at the Festival haven’t been a necessity in recent years, with none of Slade Steel, Marine Nationale or Constitution Hill lining up at Cheltenham before winning the Supreme.

The Supreme is the most prestigious of the novice hurdles at the Festival, meaning it is no surprise that a talented runner often comes out on top. That is evident based on the official ratings of winners, with only two victors since 2013 being rated lower than 147.

However, one of those did come last year in the form of Slade Steel. Prior to that, five of the last six winners had been rated 150+.

The record of favourites in the Supreme is a fascinating insight. Slade Steel became the second third-favourite in succession to win the race in 2024. Meanwhile, only one outright favourite has won the Supreme since 2016.

However, the market is never far wrong, with all but one of the last 12 winners being found in the top three in the betting. The big outsider to have won the race since 2013 was Labaik at 25/1 in 2017.