Stayers' Hurdle Trends

A race that should be called the nutters hurdle as a lot of the horses near the top of the market are extremely quirky, but also hold bundles of ability.

The three mile division looks wide open this season with old stalwarts Paisley Park and Flooring Porter potentially returning and new up and comers like Crambo throwing their hat into the ring to be the Staying Hurdle Champion.

Using the recent stats and trends could point us in the direction of one of these three or a new champion could emerge to be the King of the stayers.

Unlike a lot of the Championship races at the Cheltenham Festival, the Stayers’Hurdle isn’t one in which the favourites have a solid strike-rate. There has only been one winning favourite of the race since 2019, with Paisley Park landing a memorable success at 11/8 under Aidan Coleman.

The Emma Lavelle runner is one of just two favourites to have won the race in the last eleven renewals. Evidence that it could be wise to find a price was never more evident last year when Sire Du Berlais landed a shock win at 33/1 for trainer Gordon Elliott.

Course and distance form is important when it comes to assessing the leading chances for the Stayers’ Hurdle, with eleven of the last 12 winners having had at least one start at Cheltenham. Meanwhile, seven of the winners over the same period have also recorded at least one career victory at the course.

Nine of the winners since 2012 have also had at least three runs over the Stayers’ Hurdle distance, with eight victors also recording at least two victories over the distance.

Official ratings are also important to consider before making a bet on the Stayers’ Hurdle. All but three of the last 12 winners have been rated at 156 or higher. However, this trend with disproven last year, as Sire Du Berlais was the lowest- rated winner off 152 since Lisnagar Oscar in 2020.

Horses rated at 160+ have fared well in two of the last three editions, while the highest-rated winner of the race was the legendary Buck Bucks off 174 in 2012. Grade One performers should also be considered, with nine of the last 12 winners having won at the top level on at least one previous occasion.

Recent winning experience isn’t the most essential when it comes to finding the Stayers’ Hurdle winner, with just half of the last 12 winners having won on their latest start before lining up at the Festival. But, recent track fitness could be a key factor, with ten of the last 12 winners having made a start in the last 80 days.

An interesting race worth considering is the Cleeve Hurdle, with five of the 12 winners since 2012 lining up in the race at Cheltenham on their final prep run. Three of the five runners that lined up in the Stayers’ Hurdle following the Cleeve Hurdle also won the prep race.

The age of the runners should also be considered based on stats with nine of the winners since 2012 having been aged between six and eight. Once again, Sire Du Berlais bucked this trend last year, with the Elliott-trained runner winning the race aged eleven.

However, that success made him the oldest horse to win the race since Crimson Embers in 1986. Horses aged seven have the best recent record, winning five of the last seven renewals of the Stayers’ Hurdle.

Normally the Cleeve Hurdle is a strong guide for this with 6 of the last 14 winners contesting the Cleeve before coming here.

Noble Yeats was an impressive winner of the Cleeve Hurdle this year, just managing to hold off a late surge from Paisley Park.

It could be a strong line of form to follow going into the Festival.

Excluding age, Paisley Park would be a very popular selection for the Stayers’ Hurdle, but there would appear to be more upside in siding with the runner that got the better of the 12-year-old in the G1 Long Walk Hurdle.

Crambo for trainer Fergal O’Brien was excellent when scoring over an extended three miles at Ascot in late December, and there was enough to like about his third behind Slate Lane at Haydock in November to suggest that even further improvement could come at Cheltenham.

The one downside would be Crambo’s lack of experience at the course, but he could prove to be the best contender based on the form lines on offer.