Date: Thursday 13th March
Time: 4.00PM
The feature on day three of the Cheltenham Festival is the Stayers’ Hurdle. Horses aged four and older will compete over the stamina-sapping distance of two miles and seven furlongs on the New Course, with Teahupoo expected to be a very short priced favourite for the Gordon Elliott team.
But, do the stats and trends support the chances of the Irish raider becoming the third back-to-back winner of the race since 2013?
Ten of the winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle since 2013 have been aged between six and eight. The oldest winner of the race by a considerable margin was eleven-year-old Sire Du Berlais in 2023.
However, the Elliott runner is one of just three winners of the race that have been aged eight or older since 2013. Six winners since 2017 have been seven-year-old’s. That includes Teahupoo in 2024.
Six of the Stayers’ Hurdle victors since 2013 have been last time out winners. Meanwhile, nine of the last 12 winners have been in action within 80 days of the race at the Festival.
An interesting prep race worth consideration is the Cleeve Hurdle, with four of the last 12 Stayers’ Hurdle champions lining up in the Cheltenham race. That could bode well for proven Cheltenham contender Gowel Road, who battled well to win the Grade Two on Trial’s Day.
Teahupoo is likely to be a very short price favourite for the race in 2025. Therefore, it could be a slight concern that only three of the last 12 winners of the race have been the market leader.
Meanwhile, only five victors in the race have started within the top three of the betting. There have been some shock winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle in recent years, including 33/1 shot Sire Du Berlais in 2023, and 50/1 outsider Lisnagar Oscar in 2020.
Form at the highest level also counts for a lot in the Stayers’ Hurdle based on the stats and trends. Nine winners of the Festival race since 2013 have been Grade One winners, while the same number have also scored in Grade Two company on at least one occasion.
This trend will further the claims of many at the top of the betting, including G1 Savills Hurdle winner Home By The Lee, and G2 Relkeel Hurdle winner Lucky Place.
Irish success in the Stayers’ Hurdle has been common in recent years, with each of the last four being won by the raiders.
Gordon Elliott and Gavin Cromwell have won two races apiece since 2021, while the only British success since 2020 was shock outsider Lisnagar Oscar for Rebecca Curtis in 2020.
Teahupoo looks like a very challenging runner to oppose. However, there could be value in the market in the form of Rocky’s Diamond for trainer Declan Queally.
The unexposed five-year-old came up short when a huge outsider in the G1 Savills Hurdle in December, but jumping was certainly his downfall before finishing off very strongly to finish clear of talented runners such as Hewick, Sandor Clegane, and Asterion Forlonge.
Produced a career best effort following that Grade One run to finish just under two lengths clear of Thedevilscoachman over three miles at Gowran Park in the G2 Galmoy Hurdle. Still improving, and it should be acknowledged that his jumping was much better on more testing ground last time. While the favourite is solid, if he gets his testing ground, Rocky’s Diamond could out-run his huge odds as an each-way play.
