Stayers' Hurdle Trends

paisley park aiden coleman emma lavelle stayers hurdle cheltenham

Stayers Hurdle Trends

A race that should be called the nutters hurdle as a lot of the horses near the top of the market are extremely quirky, but also hold bundles of ability.

The three mile division looks stronger than ever. Thyme Hill, Paisley Park, Flooring Porter, Klassical Dream and Champ all are in with a chance.

Using the recent stats and trends could point us in the direction of one of these three or a new champion could emerge to be the King of the stayers.

Stat One

A good place to start with this race is with age.

10 of the last 12 winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle were aged 6-8 years old.

Big Bucks, Solwhit and Inglis Drever are the three exceptions both being nine.

All of the last five winners have been between six and seven years old.

It would seem that having age on your side is a real positive for this attritional test. Focus on those who are younger and sit in the highlighted bracket.

This would leave the likes of Sporting John, Sire Du Berlais, Paisley Park and Champ all vulnerable.

Stat Two

To further narrow the field down, there is a clear class barrier established in this race with it being a Grade 1 championship race.

10 of the last 13 winners were rated 156+.

Lisnagar Oscar was a blip in 2020 for this trend having returned to hurdles from a failed novice chasing career and seeing his mark tumble.

However, Flooring Porter put things right last term when winning the race off a mark of 160.

Official ratings can be a guide to those who are going to be involved in the finish.

Stat Three

Adding to the class angle previously mentioned, being proven in graded races is an important detail to factor in to finding the winner of this race.

Nine of the last 13 winners had a previous Grade 1 win to their name.

11 of the last 13 winners had a previous Grade 2 win to the name.

Graded form is important. Focus your attention on those who have notched a win in graded company. Those who haven’t might not have the class to be involved in the finish.

Stat Four

Carrying form into the festival has been prevalent in recent winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle as nine of the last 13 winners won on their previous start.

Furthermore 11 of the last 13 winners finished top three in their prep run.

Keep those on form on side. You want to be with those hitting their peak around the festival.

Be cautious of those struggling on their last start and this year that looks like plenty of them leaving Paisley Park and Flooring Porter as obvious contenders.

Stat Five

Finally, 12 of the last 13 winners had run at Cheltenham before, Flooring Porter was the first horse in 12 years to win the race on his first try at the track.

This is quite striking but builds a solid profile to look for. Having experience of the course is important and needs to be kept at the forefront of your mind when picking your runner and Flooring Porter is now in the category.

Notes

Normally the Cleeve Hurdle is a strong guide for this with 6 of the last 13 winners contesting the Cleeve before coming here.

Paisley Park has won the last three renewals of the race at Cheltenham before heading onto the festival making him a big player.

Value Angle

Paisley Park was third in the Stayers' Hurdle last year when looking to regain his title having won it in 2019 and then floundered in 2020.

This year after bouncing back to form in the Cleeve Hurdle he holds leading claims at an each way price and although now 10 years old, he has maintained all of his ability and looks the value in the field, being a part of most of the stats needs to win the race.

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