Stayers' Hurdle Trends

A race that should be called the nutters hurdle as a lot of the horses near the top of the market are extremely quirky, but also hold bundles of ability.

The three mile division looks stronger than ever with the likes of Paisley Park, Flooring Porter, Klassical Dream all still knocking about but there are some new young pretenders in the mix with Blazing Khal, Home By The Lee and Teahupoo looking to show just how good they are.

Using the recent stats and trends could point us in the direction of one of these three or a new champion could emerge to be the King of the stayers.

A good place to start with this race is with age.

11 of the last 13 winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle were aged 6-8 years old.

Big Bucks, Solwhit and Inglis Drever are the three exceptions both being nine.

All of the last six winners have been between six and seven years old.

It would seem that having age on your side is a real positive for this attritional test. Focus on those who are younger and sit in the highlighted bracket.

This would leave the likes of Klassical Dream, Paisley Park, Dashel Drasher, Buzz and Sire Du Berlais all vulnerable.

To further narrow the field down, there is a clear class barrier established in this race with it being a Grade 1 championship race.

11 of the last 14 winners were rated 156+.

Lisnagar Oscar was a blip in 2020 for this trend having returned to hurdles from a failed novice chasing career and seeing his mark tumble.

However, Flooring Porter has put things right the last two years when winning the race off a mark of 160 and 164.

Official ratings can be a guide to those who are going to be involved in the finish.

Adding to the class angle previously mentioned, being proven in graded races is an important detail to factor in to finding the winner of this race.

10 of the last 14 winners had a previous Grade 1 win to their name.

11 of the last 14 winners had a previous Grade 2 win to the name.

Graded form is important. Focus your attention on those who have notched a win in graded company. Those who haven’t might not have the class to be involved in the finish.

Carrying form into the festival has been prevalent in recent winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle as nine of the last 14 winners won on their previous start.

Furthermore 12 of the last 14 winners finished top three in their prep run.

Keep those on form on side. You want to be with those hitting their peak around the festival.

All three at the top horses in the market all head into the race off the back of a win, with last year's dual winner Flooring Porter finishing outside the top two on both his runs this term.

Finally, 13 of the last 14 winners had run at Cheltenham before, Flooring Porter was the first horse in 12 years to win the race on his first try at the track, but last year franked the stat when winning again.

This is quite striking but builds a solid profile to look for. Having experience of the course is important and needs to be kept at the forefront of your mind when picking your runner.

Normally the Cleeve Hurdle is a strong guide for this with 6 of the last 14 winners contesting the Cleeve before coming here.

Paisley Park has won the last three of the last four renewals of the race at Cheltenham before heading onto the festival, but this year Gold Tweet for France took the race and is an intended runner.

One to keep an eye on.

Home By The Lee is this years value angle in the race winning both of his races this term including a Grade One and Grade Two over in Ireland and having raced in the Stayers Hurdle last term he has experience in the contest.

He fits many of the stats also from an age perspective and being 13/2 compared to the other two at the top of the market, he's a serious player.