Turners Novices' Chase Trends

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Turners Novices' Chase Trends 2022

The first race of the day on the Thursday which sees a host of Grade One action again is the Turners Novices' Chase and with this seasons contest looking like a minefield with plenty of big names still in the hat we have some key trends that will help you out.

There are many horses still in the entries that could possibly end up in the Arkle or the RSA Chase with connections and trainers needing to make their minds up on whether their horses can stay this trip.

The two mile three and a half furlongs event has been renamed again, usually well known as the JLT Novices Chase, then to the Marsh, it is now the Turners' and this season it could be one of the races of the festival.

Stat One

Firstly, there is one big common trend that seems to be close to foolproof with the 10 of the last 11 winners of the Grade One being either six or seven years of age.

Although, in 2020 this stat was not followed with the eight year old Samcro narrowly winning the event from Melon in a photo-finish.

Majority of the field for this year's event all fit this bill, but the likes of Jungle Boogie, Haut En Couleurs, Riviere D'etel and Saint Sam all do not and even though all are not likely to head for this race, with current entries they may find it tough off the back of this stat.

Stat Two

Another key element to the contest over the last 11 years is that the last 10 winners during this period were rated 146+ by the handicapper.

This would mean that the majority of the horses that are set to go to post would be in with a chance as you would not really be expected to be running in a Grade One contest if you were on a lesser mark then 146.

However, adding to that, four of the last seven winners were rated 152+ and this does marginally not help some horses at the top of the market, however, last years winner Chantry House was only off 151.

Stat Three

A very useful thing to know about horses heading into this contest is that eight of the last 11 winners won on their final start before heading to the festival.

However, if the horse you fancy did not win last time out, but did finish second this can still be a good factor going into the contest with 10 out of the last 11 winners were seen finishing in the top two on their final start.

The top six runners in the market from Bob Olinger all the way down to 10/1 shot Jungle Boogie all finished in the top two last time out.

However, for horses like Haut En Couleurs, Saint Sam and Fury Road they might be struggling having a below par run last time out.

Stat Four

Horses for courses is a big thing when it comes to the Cheltenham festival and especially in this event as 10 of the last 11 winners had ran at the four day event in previous seasons.

With that in mind eight of the last nine winners had ran in a Grade One Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival which looks to be a strong stepping stone for this contest.

Staying along the hurdles route which seems to be a huge factor in seeking the winner of this contest is that eight of the last nine victors had won a Graded Hurdle race previously in their careers, with Chantry House letting this stat down last year.

This strongly supports the favourites Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs having won Grade One events over hurdles last term and also winning at the festival.

This goes against third favourite L'Homme Presse.

Stat Five

The Aintree festival for some races is a good stat with horses winning at the festival and then doing the same at the Grand National meeting, however in this contest Nine of the last 11 winners never ran at the previous Aintree Festival.

Stat Six

The final stat of the contest is all about the master hall of fame trainer Willie Mullins who has been overly successful in this contest with four of the last 11 winners being trained by the handler.

He has not the won the race now since 2017 with Yorkhill, but holds leading claims with Galopin Des Champs who looks to have been rerouted here.

Gordon Elliott is also a trainer with a decent record in the race, landing two of the last four renewals with Shattered Love and Samcro, but this year he does not look to have a really strong hand in the race.

Value Angle

The value this year seems to come from the second favourite Galopin Des Champs, hitting most of the trends you need to win the race and having proved more over fences then the superstar Bob Olinger has to date, he looks the bet at odds against.

Mullins has a great record in the race and although it is set to be a superbly tight spectacle, at this stage Galopin Des Champs represents the value.

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