Turners Novices' Chase Trends

The first race of the day on the Thursday which sees a host of Grade One action again is the Turners Novices' Chase and with this seasons contest looking competitive with plenty of big names still in the hat we have some key trends that will help you out.

There are many horses still in the entries that could possibly end up in the Arkle or the RSA Chase with connections and trainers needing to make their minds up on whether their horses can stay this trip.

The two mile three and a half furlongs event has seen some top quality winners in recent years and this year's renewal might just unearth another star chaser.

Firstly, there is one big common trend that seems to be close to foolproof with the 11 of the last 12 winners of the Grade One being either six or seven years of age.

Although, in 2020 this stat was not followed with the eight year old Samcro narrowly winning the event from Melon in a photo-finish.

Current ante-post favourite Ginny's Destiny is an 8 year old so one to be wary of in the betting.

Another key element to the contest over the last 12 years is that the last 11 winners during this period were officially rated 146 or higher.

This would mean that the majority of the horses that are set to go to post would be in with a chance as you would not really be expected to be running in a Grade One contest if you were on a lesser mark then 146.

However, adding to that, five of the last eight winners were rated 152+ and this shows that class does prevail in this race. Be prepared to strike lines through the runners below the highlighted benchmark. They simply might not have the class to get involved.

Another leading trend coming into this contest is that ten of the last 12 winners won on their final start before heading to the festival.

Pay close attention to those in the betting that have that all important 1 in the form books before they come to Cheltenham. The winner of the Turners likely lines up off the back of a victory.

It might pay to avoid Gaelic Warrior and Facile Vega for Willie Mullins if both line up here off the back of an unseat and a third placed finish respectively.

Horses for courses is a big thing when it comes to the Cheltenham festival and especially in this event as 11 of the last 12 winners had ran at the four day event in previous seasons.

With that in mind all of the last 12 winners had ran at least one previous run at Cheltenham before.

Nine of those 12 runners had also notched a win at Prestbury Park previously in their career.

Make sure to keep those onside that have proven they can go well at Cheltenham, it's constant turning nature and undulations make it a unique test, look for those that have form in the books at the course already.

Graded form is certainly something to keep in mind for the Turners as ten of the last 12 winners had come into the Grade One contest having already won a Grade One or Grade Two event.

Don't take it on blind faith that a horse will have the quality to handle the deeper waters of a Grade One, look for those who have proven themselves at the top level and scored an important graded victory in their careers.

Those who have failed to get their heads in front in a graded race might not be good enough to have a say in this race.

Ticks plenty of trends boxes for Dan Skelton and looks a really smart prospect over fences with an impressive two wins from four outings, the latest being a Grade Two victory at Warwick.

The 7 year old has a huge engine and would likely have beaten Ginny's Destiny over course and distance had he not made a shuddering error 2 out.

Arrives in form and can make his presence felt in this Grade One contest.