Turners Novices' Chase Trends

Turners Novices' Chase Trends

James Mackie | @JMackieRacing

Turners Novices' Chase Trends 2024

The first race of the day on the Thursday which sees a host of Grade One action again is the Turners Novices' Chase and with this seasons contest looking competitive with plenty of big names still in the hat we have some key trends that will help you out.

There are many horses still in the entries that could possibly end up in the Arkle or the RSA Chase with connections and trainers needing to make their minds up on whether their horses can stay this trip.

The two mile three and a half furlongs event has been renamed again, usually well known as the JLT Novices Chase, then to the Marsh, it is now the Turners' and this season it looks to be a much better renewal than last year.

Stat One

Firstly, there is one big common trend that seems to be close to foolproof with the 11 of the last 12 winners of the Grade One being either six or seven years of age.

Although, in 2020 this stat was not followed with the eight year old Samcro narrowly winning the event from Melon in a photo-finish.

Majority of the field for this year's event all fit this bill, but the likes of Sir Gerhard, Appreciate It and Kilcruit are all older horses in this field if going for the race.

Stat Two

Another key element to the contest over the last 12 years is that the last 11 winners during this period were rated 146+ by the handicapper.

This would mean that the majority of the horses that are set to go to post would be in with a chance as you would not really be expected to be running in a Grade One contest if you were on a lesser mark then 146.

However, adding to that, five of the last eight winners were rated 152+ and this shows that class does prevail in this race.

Stat Three

A very useful thing to know about horses heading into this contest is that nine of the last 12 winners won on their final start before heading to the festival.

However, if the horse you fancy did not win last time out, but did finish second this can still be a good factor going into the contest with 11 out of the last 12 winners were seen finishing in the top two on their final start.

This would see the Willie Mullins challenge of Appreciate It and James Du Berlais struggling with the pair not performing to their best last time out.

Stat Four

Horses for courses is a big thing when it comes to the Cheltenham festival and especially in this event as 11 of the last 12 winners had ran at the four day event in previous seasons.

With that in mind nine of the last 10 winners had ran in a Grade One Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival which looks to be a strong stepping stone for this contest.

Staying along the hurdles route which seems to be a huge factor in seeking the winner of this contest is that nine of the last 10 victors had won a Graded Hurdle race previously in their careers, with Chantry House letting this stat down in 2021

This strongly supports the favourites at the top of the market, some of these stats do go against Mighty Potter with him putting up the worst run of his career at the Cheltenham festival last year.

Stat Five

The Aintree festival for some races is a good stat with horses winning at the festival and then doing the same at the Grand National meeting, however in this contest 10 of the last 12 winners never ran at the previous Aintree Festival.

Stat Six

The final stat of the contest is all about the master hall of fame trainer Willie Mullins who has been overly successful in this contest with four of the last 12 winners being trained by the handler.

He has not the won the race now since 2017 with Yorkhill, but should of last year with Galopin Des Champs who has the race at bis mercy before falling at the last.

Gordon Elliott is also a trainer with a decent record in the race, landing two of the last five renewals with Shattered Love and Samcro, and this year he has the favourite Mighty Potter.

Value Angle - Mighty Potter

Mighty Potter although the favourite could be one of the bankers of the meeting, winning numerous Grade Ones during his career over both hurdles and fences and coming into the race off the back of a career best performance at the DRF, he should be tough to beat.