The County Hurdle is run over 2 miles and 1 furlong on the new course and is the first handicap on the last day of the festival.
Recently the race has been dominated by two stables with Dan Skelton winning the 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2023 renewals and Willie Mullins winning the 2015, 2017, 2020 and 2022 runnings.
It can be a tricky race to navigate, but there’s plenty of stats and trends to narrow your focus down in the big field to hopefully find the winner.
First place to start with the handicaps is with ratings. There’s a nice bracket to focus on in this race with 11 of the last 12 winners being rated 134+, Belfast Banter being the only exception winning at a huge 33/1.
Digging deeper into the last twelve years, nine of the winners were rated 134-141, Focus on those that fall into this bracket for a handy pool of horses that look like they're weighted to go well.
Anything below 134 might not have the quality necessary for the race, those rated above 139 might be overexposed and in the grip of the handicapper.
134-139 would be the apparent sweet spot to focus on from the last 12 races.
Further cutting through the field, 8 of the last 12 winners were aged five or six years old.
Coupling the first two trends gives the impression that being young and unexposed is a huge benefit when coming into the County Hurdle, with novices doing well in the race.
Ch’tibello, Artic Fire, Alderwood and last year's winner Favoir are the recent exceptions to the rule and worth noting two of those were trained by Dan Skelton.
Focus on those in the highlighted bracket, they haven’t shown too much to be fully sussed by the handicapper but have the right amount of experience to handle the big occasion of the festival and the rough going of the County Hurdle.
Going through the form of previous County hurdle winners, it shows that it’s important to come into the festival on form.
Nine of the last 12 winners placed in top three in their prep run for the festival.
A notable recent exception to this is last year's winner Favoir who pulled up in the Betfair Hurdle before winning at Cheltenham.
Be wary of those not involved in the finish last time out.
An interesting angle to explore is the weight carried by the previous winners of this handicap.
Nine of the last 12 winners of the County Hurdle carried 11st 1lb or less.
It’s a good method to take in these hanidcap hurdles that can narrow the field down exponentially.
The stats and trends are really leaning to those who are unexposed, Saint Roi only carried 10st 13lbs to victory in 2020, in 2021 Belfast Banter won off just 10st, with Petit Mouchoir back in second giving nearly a stone and a half away and State Man got the job done off 11st 1lbs. Favoir followed this trend last year carrying only 10st 7lbs.
Don’t be afraid to spend your time near the bottom of the handicap with young horses, they have more scope for improvement and aren’t under the thumb of the assessor. This year's favourite Iberico Lord sneaks into this trend perfectly carrying 11st 1lbs.
Finally, be wary of the market vibes in this race.
Only two of the last 12 winners were the SP favourite. Saint Roi in 2020 and State Man in 2022 the two blots on this as both were well backed before the off and duly obliged backers.
Furthermore, only four of the last 14 winners were even top three in the betting for the race.
In the last 6 years three of the winners have been priced 33/1.
Dan Skelton is no stranger to training the winner of the County Hurdle and normally has won primed and ready for a big run in this race, winning the 2018, 2019 and 2023 renewals of the race.
Left behind a poor showing in the Greatwood Hurdle to be a close 2nd in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time out and isn't harshly treated with a 6lbs rise for that.
Still young and improving, he could just provide the Skelton's with another win in the race under his light weight.
