Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle Trends

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Stat One

First, establishing the bracket of ratings you want to focus on in the handicap.

10 of the last 13 winners were rated 125-134. It’s a solid starting point to start sifting through the 4 year olds that will be entered.

Last years winner Band Of Outlaws did come from out of the highlighted bracket with a rating of 139, but Joseph O’Brien’s charge was a well backed favourite.

It is interesting to note that 2nd, 3rd and 4th were all rated 125-134.

Stat Two

Coming into the festival off the back of a decent run looks to be handy as nine of the last 13 winners came into the Fred Winter after a top 4 finish.

Look for those who’ve recently shown themselves well, despite the fact that a good run probably means a rise in the weights.

A steady improver lying in the previously mentioned rating bracket is ideal.

Stat Three

Ensure to check the breeding of your selection as 11 of the last 13 winners have been bred either in France or Ireland.

The home bred juveniles apparently haven’t been up to scratch in recent years so it’s worth looking at those from abroad.

Of the last 10 winners all have ticked the aforementioned trend.

Six of them have been Irish, four of them French. Bear in mind where you selection has come from before they carry your money.

Stat Four

It could pay to look for those contesting a better quality of race before heading into the Fred Winter.

Eight of the last 13 winners had run in a class 2 race or better before lining up here.

Seven of the 13 had run in a listed or better race before coming to Cheltenham.

Keep an eye out for those who’ve been proven themselves in a better quality of race in their preparations.

Stat Five

Further digging into the breeding of the entries could yield some helpful information too as eight of the last 13 winners had been sired by a Group One flat winner.

More digging into the sire form is needed as four of the last six winners had been sired by a one mile four furlong Group One winner.

If you can spot those entered who have a touch of class in their breeding, especially from highlighted distance winners, you could be on to a winner.

Value Angle

Ante-post favourite Aramax is German bred and his sire Maxios’s only Group One win came over 9 furlongs.

He ticks enough negative boxes to be a wary about at such a short price in a cagey handicap.

With that in mind an early each way play Gealach would seem to represent some really good value at 25/1 non-runner no bet.

He’s Irish bred, out of 1 mile 4 furlong Group One winner Sea The Moon and has some decent form tying into Aramax.

Off level weights he finished less than three lengths behind the current market leader yet off their current Irish handicap marks he’d be getting 10lbs.

Rated 124 in Ireland, the Gordon Elliot trained gelding looks like he’ll fit in the ideal bracket for ratings too.

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