The Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle (Boodles) is a race that is truly a minefield for punters but we are hoping these trends can point you in the right direction.
Over the last few years trainers have tried to be shrewd with their entries and how they have campaigned their horses throughout the season to leave them with the best mark possible to run with in this event.
We have some stats and trends from past winners that should help you find this years victor.
First, establishing the bracket of ratings you want to focus on in the handicap.
11 of the last 15 winners were rated 125-134. It’s a solid starting point to start sifting through the four year olds that will be entered.
Last years winner Brazil did go against this stat having been off a mark of 137 but he did offer more of a class angle into the race than normal years.
Coming into the festival off the back of a decent run looks to be handy as 10 of the last 15 winners came into the Fred Winter after a top 4 finish.
Look for those who’ve recently shown themselves well, despite the fact that a good run probably means a rise in the weights.
A steady improver lying in the previously mentioned rating bracket is ideal.
Ensure to check the breeding of your selection as 13 of the last 15 winners have been bred either in France or Ireland.
The home bred juveniles haven’t been up to scratch in recent years so it’s worth looking at those from abroad.
Of the last 11 winners all have ticked the aforementioned trend.
Seven of them have been Irish, four of them French. Bear in mind where you selection has come from before they carry your money.
It could pay to look for those contesting a better quality of race before heading into the Fred Winter.
Nine of the last 15 winners had run in a class 2 race or better before lining up here.
Eight of the 15 had run in a Listed or better race before coming to Cheltenham.
Keep an eye out for those who’ve been proven themselves in a better quality of race in their preparations and are now dropping in class.
Further digging into the breeding of the entries could yield some helpful information too as 10 of the last 14 winners had been sired by a Group One flat winner.
More digging into the sire form is needed as five of the last eight winners had been sired by a one mile four furlong Group One winner.
If you can spot those entered who have a touch of class in their breeding, especially from highlighted distance winners, you could be on to a winner.
The value in the betting is the Willie Mullins trained Tekao who currently has an Irish mark of 128 but the English handicapper is likely to bump that up to the low 130s keeping him in the handicap bracket that performs well in this race.
Out of Group One winning sire Doctor Dino, the JP McManus owned entry has some serious class heading into the race finishing third in a good Grade One event last time out and having won nicely before that, he has a lot going for him.
Big player.
