The Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle (Boodles) is a race that is truly a minefield for punters but we are hoping these trends can point you in the right direction.
Over the last few years trainers have tried to be shrewd with their entries and how they have campaigned their horses throughout the season to leave them with the best mark possible to run with in this event.
We have some stats and trends from past winners that should help you find this year's victor.
First, establishing the bracket of ratings you want to focus on in the handicap.
9 of the last 12 winners were rated 125-134. It’s a solid foundation to start sifting through the juveniles that will be entered.
Last year's winner Jazzy Matty fit into this trend nicely winning off a handicap rating of 125. Aramax, Band Of Outlaws and Brazil have been the ones to buck the trend in recent years.
Coming into the festival off the back of a decent run looks to be handy as 8 of the last 12 winners came into the Fred Winter after a top 4 finish.
Look for those who’ve recently shown themselves well, despite the fact that a good run could mean a hike in the weights.
A steady improver lying in the previously mentioned rating bracket is ideal.
Ensure to check the breeding of your selection as 13 of the last 15 winners have been bred either in France or Ireland.
The home bred juveniles haven’t been up to scratch in recent years so it’s worth looking at those from abroad.
Of the last 11 winners all have ticked the aforementioned trend. Seven of them have been Irish, four of them French. Bear in mind where you selection has come from before they carry your money.
It could pay to look for those within a specific weight bracket, those carrying too light a weight likely haven't achieved much therefore aren't good enough to win the race, those with a higher weight are likely to have a difficult time holding off better handicapped rivals.
Nine of the last twelve winners have carried 10st-6lb and 11st-5lb. Combine this with the rating trend and it can give you a nice pool of horses to focus on.
Further digging into the form of the entries is an important angle to keep in mind. Eleven of the last twelve winners had notched a win in the season.
Be wary of those who have had enough runs to qualify for a handicap mark but have failed to get their head in front before heading to Cheltenham.
Being proven to be able to win a race looks an important trend to keep in mind. Diego Du Charmil is the only recent exception to this as he hadn't won a race in his three starts before the Boodles.
There's looks to be some value in Pacini for the Boodles currently at a general 12/1.
Well beaten on his first two starts over hurdles, he struggled to live with the likes of Mighty Bandit but got his head in front at the third time of asking in impressive fashion with the third since going on to place in listed company behind Woodhoh.
Entered for the Rated 4yo Novice Hurdle at Naas on the 10th of February, it's been a race that's produced several winners of the Fred Winter recently and his price could contract significantly if running well and earning a decent handicap mark to get into the race at the Festival.
