Newmarket Tuesday Preview - 18/04/23

The first race of the afternoon at Newmarket on Tuesday is the Conditions Stakes over 7f and Majestic Pride has bundles of improvement to come.

Making his debut in October on good to soft ground over the same course and distance as the race of Tuesday, he was a good second learning a lot for the experience.

The son of Shamardal got off the mark for his career last time out on the all weather at Chelmsford when comfortably landing a Novice Stakes.

Again he learnt a lot of that day being very green and then the penny finally dropping late on and if putting it all together this three year old could be very smart.

Next up is the National Stud Handicap over 7f and we are playing two against the field here starting with the Richard Hannon trained Tacarib Bay.

This four year old does not win all that often but does run his race the majority of the time and on Tuesday dropping back to his preferred trip of 7f on soft ground, it presents him with a big opportunity to get back to winning ways.

Last winning back in July at Haydock on soft ground off a mark of 103, he has then ran to a fair standard off a slightly higher mark with one of his better performances coming at Ascot in October when a good third of 20 runners in the Balmoral Handicap over a mile.

Being tried at a mile on his three other starts since he has always struggled to get home over the distance, with his last run at Doncaster in the Listed Doncaster Mile showing he needs to drop back to 7f.

He gets that on Tuesday, also getting his preferred conditions and off only 1lb higher than his last winning mark he is one to watch at an each way price.

At a slightly bigger price in the betting is the Kevin Philippart De Foy trained Vafortino who at 11/1 looks overpriced in the market for us and could run a big race.

Moving from Joseph O'Brien's yard back in March 2022, he made his stable debut at Newcastle when a neck second to the talented Bless Him on All Weather Championships day.

Sent to Ascot in May for the 27 runner Victoria Cup, Vafortino went on to take the event in good style off a mark of 97, loving the hustle and bustle of the big field.

Upped to a mark of 102 he could only finish midfield at Royal Ascot in the Buckingham Palace Stakes and then at Newmarket on the July Course in the Bunbury Cup.

Dropped 1lb for those runs he was sent to Goodwood in September and he got back to winning ways in gritty style.

Put away for the rest off 2022, he returned in March this year at Kempton when blowing away the cobwebs well when third behind the smart Mount Athos.

Off just 2lb higher than his last winning mark he has a big chance of running a big race, having showed he can handle soft conditions.

The next race of the afternoon is the Close Brothers Handicap over a mile and we are siding with the Roger Fell trained Harswell Duke who has shown some serious form this season already.

A winner twice at the back end of last season at Nottingham and Leicester on soft/heavy ground, the key to this horse is the ground.

Finishing off last season with a decent third at Nottingham, he made his seasonal debut this term at Newcastle and looked to need the run.

Having had a pipe opener, he got his ideal conditions in the Spring Mile Handicap at Doncaster when winning by a neck off a mark of 83.

Getting his soft ground again on Tuesday having only gone up 3lb in the handicap, he should go close again.

The feature event of the afternoon at Newmarket is the Group Three Earl Of Sefton Stakes over 1m1f and Poker Face for Simon & Ed Crisford could take all the beating.

The four year old has been seen three times to date and is currently unbeaten on all three of his starts, making his debut over a mile at Pontefract in September when winning well in a Maiden.

Sent into a Novice Stakes under a penalty he went on to beat a 4/5 favourite for John & Thady Gosden in convincing fashion at Newcastle on the all weather.

Landing the hat-trick in October back at Pontefract on handicap debut, he bolted up by close to nine lengths off a mark of 87.

Now on a rating of 101, he steps into Group Three company and obviously still progressing he should take this race in his stride if handling the softer conditions.

The penultimate selection of the afternoon comes in the Maiden Stakes over 7f and Covey for John & Thady Gosden could be very smart.

A Three year old son of Frankel mad a very smart debut at Southwell at the start of April when a neck second to the smart Zoology.

That looked a hot Maiden and now getting his chance on turf he could turn out to be even better.

The final selection of the afternoon comes in the Handicap over 5f and we are going with the form horse Lihou that just needs to transfer it to the turf.

A different horse since the turn of the year, winning at Wolves over 5f off a mark of 72, he then went to Newcastle a month later and finished close third.

Getting back to winning ways at Southwell next time out off a mark of 76, he then went up to a mark of 80 for his last run at Lingfield but was not for stopping carrying his good run of form going to land his third race in four runs.

He runs off only 2lb higher here which is lenient, he just needs to convert his all weather form to the turf, but is a big enough price to take a chance on he can do so.