Cheltenham Festival Trends & Insights - Wednesday

Ladies Day at the Cheltenham Festival is set for 11th March, with four Grade Ones making up the seven-race card.

Trends and insights for all races on Day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival can be found below.

• ✅ Horses aged 5 or 6 (11/12)
• ✅ Top 3 in the Betting (10/12)
• ✅ Previous Run Over Distance (11/12)
• ✅ Irish Trained (10/12)
• ✅ Last Time Out Winners (11/12)
• ✅ Handicap rating of 146 or higher (12/12)
• ✅ 2+ Wins This Season (11/12)

Day 2 at the Cheltenham Festival kicks off with the Turners Novices’ Hurdle, run over two miles and five. The New Lion became the first British-trained winner of the race since 2017 last year, something that Paul Nicholls-trained No Drama This End will be hoping to emulate.

However, Irish raiders have dominated, winning ten of the last 12, with last-time-out victors also following up at the Festival. High-quality horses tend to win the race, meaning it’s notable that no runner holds an OR of 146+.

I’ll Sort That ticks plenty of trend boxes for the Declan Queally yard. The six-year-old was a winner in Grade One company last time out, maintaining an unbeaten record over an extended two miles and four.

• ✅ Horses aged 7 (9/12)
• ✅ British trained runners (7/12)
• ✅ Last Time Out Winners (9/12)
• ✅ 1+ Run at Cheltenham (12/12)
• ✅ 1+ Win Over Distance (11/12)

A stamina-sapping renewal of the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase is the second race on day two, with three miles and a furlong covered on the old course. Experience over the trip is vitally important, with all but one of the last 12 winners having proven stamina. A clear negative for Romeo Coolio.

Last-time-out winners also have a strong record, which would be a worry for Final Demand at the top of the betting. Unusually, it is a race dominated by the Brits, with seven of the last eleven coming from the home team.

Therefore, Wendigo could be a solid chance to add to his two wins over fences this season, landing Grade Two honours earlier in the campaign at Newbury. Festival experience also supports his chances after finishing fifth in the Albert Bartlett last year.

• ✅ Horses aged 6 to 8 years old (10/12)
• ❌ Favourites (1/12)
• ✅ Horses carrying between 10-7 and 11-8 in weight (10/12)
• ✅ 1+ Run at Cheltenham (10/12)
• ✅ Handicap rating between 138 and 151 (10/12)

The first handicap on day two is the BetMGM Cup, run over two miles and five furlongs. Higher quality horses have won this race in the last four editions, with each carrying over 11-0.

Previous Cheltenham form is a must, while it is typically won by progressive horses on lenient marks.

Willie Mullins has trained the winner in two of the last eight editions, and Kopeck De Mee could be an overlooked contender.

He wasn’t suited to chasing, but reverts to hurdles after showing plenty during his time in France. He also went close to landing a big purse at Aintree at the end of last season.

• ✅ Horses aged 8+ (10/11)
• ✅ Top 3 in the Betting (10/11)
• ✅ Irish trained (9/11)
• ✅ 1+ Run at Cheltenham (11/11)

The Cross Country Chase will be run under handicap conditions for the second time this year, but there remains a sense that it is a race that will be dominated by the Irish.

There hasn’t been a British winner of the race since 2014, and classy operators such as Stumptown and Favori De Champdou at the top of the betting will be hard to oppose.

he latter was an impressive winner over course and distance last time out. One negative for Stumptown is the fact that seven of the last eleven winners have run within 46 days.

• ✅ Horses aged between 7 and 9 years old (10/12)
• ❌ Favourites (4/12)
• ❔ Last Time Out Winners (5/12)
• ❔ 1+ Cheltenham Win (7/12)
• ✅ Grade 1 Winners (11/12)

The Champion Chase is the feature on day two, and Majborough will be a red hot favourite following Marine Nationale’s setback. However, the Grade One has been a graveyard for short-priced favourites, with Douvan (2/9), El Fabiolo (2/5), and Shishkin (5/6) all beaten since 2017.

The poor record of last-time-out winners is also striking, with just five of the last 12 victors winning on their previous start before the Champion Chase.

Based on trends, Grade 1-winner over fences, L’Eau du Sud could be an interesting angle.

The eight-year-old has a reliable record at Cheltenham, including a 15-length win over Jonbon earlier this season.

• ✅ Horses aged 6 and 9 years old (10/12)
• ❌ Favourites (1/12)
• ✅ Horses priced 10/1 or bigger (9/12)
• ✅ Horses carrying between 10-10 and 11-6 in weight (9/12)
• ❌ Last Time Out Winners (1/12)
• ✅ 1+ Run at Cheltenham (9/12)

The oldest race at the Cheltenham Festival is the final race over obstacles on day two, with the Grand Annual covering two miles. The poor record of favourites is a key trend, with nine of the last 12 victors priced at 10/1 or bigger.

Jazzy Matty won the race 12 months ago, but only two horses have retained their crown, most recently Dulwich in 1976. Last-time-out winners have a poor record, worryingly for backers of Vanderpoel, Personal Ambition, and Jour d’Evasion.

Interestingly, Henry De Bromhead won the Grand Annual with Maskada in 2023, and Inthepocket shares a similar profile.

The nine-year-old has run eye-catchingly in Ireland on his last two starts, and should relish a return to Cheltenham after finishing fourth in the 2023 Supreme.

• ✅ Horses aged 5 or 6 (12/12)
• ❌ Favourites (3/12)
• ✅ Irish trained (11/12)
• ✅ Last Time Out Winners (12/12)
• ✅ 2+ Runs Under Rules (11/12)

Day two at the Festival rounds off with the Champion Bumper. Irish-trained horses that won last time out have an excellent record, while Willie Mullins has trained the winner in each of the last two, and five of the last six years.

However, the weak record of favourites could be a notable concern. Gordon Elliott-trained Broadway Ted won the Grade Two Flat Race at the Dublin Racing Festival, which has produced three of the last 12 winners.