The opening day of the Cheltenham Festival brings with it huge excitement, as the famous Cheltenham Roar will be heard from miles away when the tapes go up to signal the start of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
We've picked out the key trends and insights for each race to follow, along with a selection which fits the requirements for each race.
Everyone will be hoping to kick off the Festival with a winner, but a red-hot renewal of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle illustrates a challenge.
The trends make for negative reading for the current favourite, Old Park Star, with only one previous winner in the last 12 having won at Cheltenham before lining up in the Supreme. Meanwhile, the chances of Mighty Park and El Cairos don’t bode much better, with both having failed to win a graded race.
Instead, it's Talk The Talk, for Joseph O’Brien, that comes out best on trends. Having won impressively in Grade One company at the Dublin Racing Festival, to reach an official rating of 150. The five-year-old ticks all major boxes, including being a last-time-out winner, having two starts over hurdles, and having never won at Cheltenham.
The Arkle is being regarded as somewhat of a two-horse race, but Lulamba and Kopek Des Bordes both struggle when compared with trends. The latter could become only the third runner to win the Grade One, having made just one previous start over fences.
Sam Thomas-trained Steel Ally has looked progressive over fences this season, winning three from three. However, he fails to tick many important boxes, including being older than the historical trends and having no experience at Cheltenham.
Jax Junior is one of the most consistent based on the stats. The Lucy Wadham runner was a winner over hurdles at Cheltenham last season, and has progressed nicely to win on back-to-back starts over fences since wind surgery, which includes a Grade Two win last time out. Still needs to improve to feature, but ticks many of the boxes that others don’t.
The first handicap of the Cheltenham Festival is The Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle. Trends indicate overlooking the favorite, while runners in the top three have only won four of the last 12. In fact, seven of the winners over the same period have been priced up at 10/1 or bigger.
Each of the last eight renewals have been won by the Irish. Therefore, Hardy Stuff could be an interesting runner for Gordon Elliott. The four-year-old has a win over hurdles to his name, beating Ole Ole by a head at Leopardstown in December.
Will be carrying the desired weight based on trends, and isn’t a last-time-out winner. However, Hardy Stuff does have the experience of Cheltenham under his belt, having run on Trials Day behind Maestro Conti, which could also prove crucial in this competitive handicap.
While unlikely at the Festival for a race to be dominated by the home team, the Ultima Handicap Chase is one that hasn’t gone to Ireland since 2006. Myretown bids to become the third horse since 2015 to win in back-to-back years, while Lucinda Russell has trained the winner in three of the last four.
Quebecois is the outstanding play for the home team this year based on the stats. Paul Nicholls’ runner has run with promise on all four starts over fences, and ran a credible race when beaten a nose by Jordans Cross on Trials Day. He fits the age, experience, and official rating boxes.
The feature on Day One of the Cheltenham Festival is a wide-open Champion Hurdle. Golden Ace bucked a number of trends when winning the race 12 months ago, becoming only the third winner that wasn’t in the top three of the betting. This year, Poniros is the runner that goes against the trends, lacking the experience and rating of former winners.
Three horses come out on top based on trends, and they are the top three in the betting: The New Lion, Lossiemouth, and Brighterdaysahead. The latter’s Cheltenham form is a negative, with eight of the last 12 winners having previously won at the track.
Overall, The New Lion comes out on top, despite concerns about jumping and suitability over two miles.
Next up is the Sun Racing Plate Handicap Chase, which has been won by British trainers in three of the last four years. Madara is a red-hot favourite for the Dan Skelton yard, but only four runners at the top of the betting have won in the last 12 years.
Peaky Boy, for the Jonjo & AJ O’Neill yard, has an interesting profile for the race. The eight-year-old was an excellent third behind Haiti Couleurs at Cheltenham in December 2024 while with Nicky Henderson, and has looked to be trained for this race after returning from a long layoff last time at Newcastle.
His record of 1-1-3 at Cheltenham is eye-catching.
Day One rounds off with the National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase, run over three miles and six. The Irish domination of the race was broken by Rebecca Curtis and Haiti Couleurs in 2025, marking the first time since 2019 that there had been a British winner.
A second straight British winner could follow in 2026 based on trends. One Big Bang looks a solid chance following a third at Doncaster over an inadequate two miles and three last time. Has proven stamina after winning over three miles earlier this season.
The James Owen runner also has Cheltenham form in the book, finishing second behind Wade Out at the November meeting.
