Cheltenham Festival Trends & Insights - Thursday

St. Patrick’s Day is celebrated at the Cheltenham Festival on Day Three of the meeting, with five graded races included on a stacked day of racing.

Find the key trends and insights for each race here.

• ✅ Horses aged 5 or 6 (10/10)
• ❔ Top 3 in the Betting (6/10)
• ❌ 1+ Cheltenham Run (2/10)
• ❌ 1+ Cheltenham Win (0/10)
• ✅ 2+ Runs this Season (9/10)

The penultimate day of the Cheltenham Festival kicks off with the Grade Two Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle. The poor strike-rate of favourites is eye-catching, with just three of the ten victors placed at the top of the betting.

Alarming would be the 0/10 rate of Cheltenham winners, a clear negative for last year’s Champion Bumper winner, Bambino Fever. Older horses have dominated recent renewals, with each of the last six being won by six-year-olds.

Therefore, Oldschool Outlaw could be the main chance. The six-year-old already has winning form against Bambino Fever, and has a perfect record over hurdles.

• ✅ Horses Aged 6/7 (11/12)
• ✅ Top 3 in the Betting (11/12)
• ✅ 3+ Wins Over Hurdles (9/12)
• ✅ 2+ Wins Over Fences (9/12)
• ✅ Handicap rating of 146+ or higher (11/12)

For the second year, the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase will be run under handicap conditions. However, Caldwell Potter continued a lot of the historical trends last year, ensuring each of the last seven winners have held official ratings of 146 or higher.

Meanwhile, horses aged seven have won the last five renewals, with the most recent six-year-old winner being Defi Du Seuil in 2019. Based on trends, it is wise to stick with the classy horses in the field.

Therefore, Sixmilebridge holds a leading chance for Fergal O’Brien. The seven-year-old is unbeaten in three starts over fences, and was a course and distance winner in December.

• ✅ Horses aged 5 or 7 (10/12)
• ✅ Irish-trained Runners (10/12)
• ❔ Last Time Out Winners (8/12)
• ✅ 1+ Run Over Distance (11/12)
• ✅ Grade 1/2/3 Winners (10/12)

The Grade One Mares’ Hurdle is staged on day three for the first time in 2026, with the New Course being in operation instead of the Old Course.

Irish-trained runners have dominated the last three editions, with Willie Mullins winning the race six times since 2014. Last-time-out winners and runners with previous winning experience in at least a Grade Three are worth following, which rules out the vast majority of the outsiders.

Wodhooh is the class angle for Gordon Elliott, winning in graded company on her latest start. With no Lossiemouth, this two-time Cheltenham winner should be capable of stamping her authority on this field.

• ✅ Horses aged 6 to 8 years oold (10/12)
• ❔ Last Time Out Winners (5/12)
• ❌ Favourites (3/12)
• ❔ 1+ Win at Cheltenham (7/12)
• ✅ 1+ Win Over Distance (9/12)

The Grade Ones come thick and fast on day three, with the Stayers’ Hurdle being run over three miles. Stamina must be assured based on trends, with nine of the last 12 winners having previously won over three miles.

Incredibly, the strike-rate of last-time-out winners isn’t strong, meaning that it could bode well for the forgiving types.

Meanwhile, there has only been one winning favourite of the Stayers’ Hurdle since 2020, with 50/1 (Lisnagar Oscar) and 33/1 (Sire Du Berlais) causing upsets.

Impose Toi has already shown his class in Grade One company over three miles this season, and has previous winning experience at Cheltenham.

• ✅ Horses aged 7 to 9 years old (12/12)
• ❔ Favourites (6/12)
• ✅ Ran Within 77 Days (10/12)
• ✅ 2+ Runs at Cheltenham (12/12)
• ✅ Grade One Winners (11/12)

The Grade One Ryanair Chase will feature a number of runners that could have competed in the Gold Cup, ensuring a classy renewal.

Grade One winners have a strong record in the race, winning eleven of the last 12, while previous Cheltenham experience is a must, with nine of the victors over the same period having won at the track.

With a high-quality roll of honour including the likes of Allaho, Min, and Envoi Allen, it is unsurprising that all but one of the winners since 2014 have held an official rating of 162. The one exception was Uxizandre in 2015.

Unsurprisingly, Fact To File is preferred based on trends to win the race for the second straight season.

• ✅ Horses aged 6 to 8 years old (10/12)
• ❌ Favourites (2/12)
• ❌ Last Time Out Winners (3/12)
• ❌ Winning Experience at Cheltenham (2/12)
• ✅ 2+ Runs Over Distance (9/12)

The first of two tricky handicaps to round off the card on day three is the Pertemps Final. Avoiding last time out winners, and those that have won a Pertemps Qualifier are musts, while it is worth noting that each of the last five winners have carried between 10-9 and 11-4 and held official ratings between 131 and 142.

The highest-rated winner of the race was Sire Du Berlais in 2020, winning off 11-12. British trainers have a reliable recent record in the race, winning each of the last four.

Bettors shouldn’t be afraid of taking a price with favourites being winless since 2019, and three of the last four victors being priced up at odds of 25/1. Lavida Adiva ticks plenty of the trend boxes, and has been eye-catching in her last two starts.

• ✅ Horses aged 6 to 8 years old (10/12)
• ❌ Favourites (2/12)
• ❔ Irish-Trained (8/12)
• ❌ Last Time Out Winners (1/12)
• ✅ Handicap rating 134 to 143 (9/12)

Day three comes to a close with the Kim Muir Challenge Cup, which is a rare handicap at the Festival that the Irish have dominated. Last-time-out winners should be overlooked, while only five of the last 12 have won over the distance.

Favourites have finished second in three of the last four renewals, while 40/1, 12/1, and 10/1 victors have been found since 2022. Ideally, bettors will be looking for horses rated between 134 and 143, but carrying more than 11-0.

Therefore, Prends Garde A Toi looks like a runner on an eye-catching mark that is well-suited to this stamina-sapping challenge.