National Hunt Chase Trends

A pure attritional test of a horse, stamina and will are put under the microscope over a revised three miles and six furlongs.

Stamina is the name of the game, but over the years this race has now turned into a event that has thrown out some very smart horses, which might see a changing of the guard.

Horses now have to placed top four in a race over three miles to qualify, have a minimum rating of 120, they must have run in two chase contests prior and at least one of those must have been during the current season.

In terms of welfare it’s good to know the race is safer for those involved and the event has really become a stepping stone towards the Gold Cup more than ever before.

Age should be a factor that isn’t overlooked when it comes to betting on the National Hunt Chase. Nine of the last 12 winners of the Grade Two at the Festival have been aged between six and eight, with seven-year-olds enjoying the best recent record after winning each of the last three and four of the previous five.

That includes Gaillard Du Mesnil for Willie Mullins, who was a winner aged seven in 2023.

Favourites have a very reliable strike-rate in the National Hunt Chase, with each of the last three winners being sent off within the top two in the market. Gaillard Du Mesnil was the third winning favourite of the race in 12 years in 2023, with the horses sitting second in the market winning the race in 2021 and 2022.

The biggest price winner of the National Hunt Chase since 2012 was Le Breuil when landing victory at 14/1 with trainer Ben Pauling and jockey Jamie Codd.

Previous course form at Cheltenham is a massive bonus when it comes to assessing the most likely winner of the National Hunt Chase. The stats show that nine of the last 12 winners have lined up at Cheltenham on one previous occasion before landing the Grade Two.

However, winning experience at the course isn’t as essential, with just two winners since 2012 having won around Cheltenham before winning at the Festival.

The stats show that eleven of the 12 previous winners of the race have lined up in at least three chases before winning the National Hunt Chase. Meanwhile, ten of the winners since 2012 have also won at least once over the bigger obstacles.

Interestingly, it is also worth noting that ten of the winners over the same period have had at least three starts over the season, with the same number of victors also recording at least one win. Form over three miles is also important with nine of the 12 winners having won over the distance or further before winning the Festival race.

The rating should be essential reading before making a bet on the race, with all but one of the victors since 2012 having won off a mark of 142 or higher. Extra attention should also be placed on the Irish runners, with five of the last seven winners having being trained in the country.

Patrick Mullins is a lucrative jockey to follow in the race, with the rider having won each of the last two editions and four since 2013. The lowest rated winner of the race was Midnight Prayer for trainer Alan King off 139 in 2014.

Note that in the last 10 renewals (where amateurs were riding), Jamie Codd has won this race twice, Derek O’Connor has won this race twice and Patrick Mullins has won this race three times.

With this being for amateur jockeys, looks for those who stand out above the rest.

The mounts of those three jockeys could play a massively important role on the day.

There are some very interesting angles for the National Hunt Chase, but Meetingofthewaters ticks more boxes than most. The Willie Mullins-trained runner has won two from five starts over fences, and was impressive when landing victory over an extended three miles at Leopardstown in the Paddy Power Chase.

He will step back up in trip after unseating his rider at the Dublin Racing Festival over two miles and five in early February, and he is a major player at a double- digit price.