The Mares Hurdle on the Tuesday of the festival is the final Grade One on the first day of the meeting and this year's renewal looks as strong as last year's.
It gives the horses the only real chance for them to compete within their own sex at the festival for a bumper £67,524 to the winner.
An ideal mix of speed and stamina is needed but cutting deeper into the trends could help identify the winner of the 2m4f event.
Favourites have a solid record in the Mares’ Hurdle, with five of the last 12 winners being found at the top of the betting. Bettors may not need to look outside the top three in the market, with the stats showing that ten of the last 12 winners have been located here.
This trend was accurate once again last year, as Honeysuckle claimed victory for Henry De Bromhead and Rachel Blackmore. In fact, the only winner at a double-digit price in four editions was Marie’s Rock at 18/1 in 2022 for trainer Nicky Henderson.
Recent winning experience is a huge boost when assessing the likeliest winner of the Mares’ Hurdle, with nine of the last 12 winners landing victory on their final start before heading to Cheltenham.
Interestingly, the same number of winners have also run within the last 52 days. Previous course form is also important to assess, with eight of the last 12 having run at Cheltenham, with four victors having won at the track.
The official ratings will make for key reading when it comes to assessing the most likely winner in the Mares’ Hurdle. Nine of the last 12 winners have held a rating of 148 or higher.
The highest rated horse to win the race was Quevega off 163 in 2013, while the lowest rated winner was Marie’s Rock off 140 in 2022. Graded form could be the key angle worth following, with all but two of the previous winners having won at least a Grade Three.
Lossiemouth is a deserving favourite for the Mares’ Hurdle, but a key stat goes against the Willie Mullins runner in the race. The stats show that eight of the last 12 winners have had at least two previous runs before lining up at Cheltenham, while seven of the 12 winners have recorded at least one win that season.
While Lossiemouth ticks the second trend, she will likely head to the Mares’ Hurdle after appearing just once this season.
Despite Honeysuckle claiming victory in the Mares’ Hurdle last year, older horses have a poor record in the race. Eight of the last 12 winners have been aged between five and seven, with the only other runner to defy this trend coming in the form of the legendary Quevega when winning in back-to-back years in 2013 and 2014 at nine and ten, respectively.
Seven year olds have the best recent record after winning four of the previous six editions of the race. The youngest horse to win the race since 2012 was Apple’s Jade, as the five-year-old justified her 7/2 price to finish a length clear of Vroum Vroum Mag.
It could be worth taking on Lossiemouth based on a number of the trends going against her. Willie Mullins also trains Ashroe Diamond, who won impressively over an extended two miles at Doncaster in the G2 Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle in late January.
The seven-year-old has won four from seven career starts over hurdles, and could offer better value than siding with the short-price favourite in the Mares’ Hurdle.
