The first championship race of the festival.
The best of the two mile hurdlers will fight for bragging rights around Cheltenham as categorically the best in the division.
Constitution's recent health blip has cast doubt over his presence to defend his Championship Crown, we've taken a deeper look into the stats and trends to see if he's opposable in the market.
Season form is essentially important when it comes to weighing up the chances of a runner in the Champion Hurdle Eleven of the last 13 winners of the race have avoided defeat throughout the current season, with nine of the 19 unbeaten runners in the race landing victory in the last nine years.
That stat is evident once again based on the fact that ten of the previous 12 winners of the race were victorious on their last start before the Festival. Four winners have come out of the Irish Champion Hurdle, which is the same number as the Christmas Hurdle.
Certain trainers have dominated the Champion Hurdle throughout recent history, with ten of the last 15 winners having been trained by either Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson.
A fifth winner over that period for Henderson was registered with Constitution Hill in 2023, while the last winner for Mullins was recorded in 2016 with Annie Power. The only other trainers to have recorded victories in the race since 2013 are Gavin Cromwell, Henry De Bromhead, and John Harrington.
The age of the runners is also essential reading based on the fact that ten of the last 12 winners were aged between six and eight. This stat has further weight based on the fact that 29 of the last 41 winners were aged either six or seven.
Constitution Hill won the race aged six last season, while Honeysuckle was the oldest winner of the Champion Hurdle since Annie Power in 2022. Espoir D’Allen was the youngest winner of the race in recent history after claiming victory for Gavin Cromwell when aged five in 2019.
Second-season hurdlers have a fine record in the Champion Hurdle, with seven of the last 12 following this trend. Interestingly, five of the last 12 winners also finished in the first three at the Cheltenham Festival in the previous year’s Supreme or Baring Bingham.
It is also worth considering that ten of the last 14 winners of the Champion Hurdle had made no more than ten starts over the smaller obstacles.
Cheltenham experience is vitally important when it comes to weighing up the chances of a contender in the Champion Hurdle.
Only two winners in the last 25 editions of the race had not run at the Festival previously, while eleven of the 12 winners since 2012 have made at least one previous start at Cheltenham. Of these runners, eight also landed victory at the track before landing success in the Champion Hurdle.
Constitution Hill’s potential absence in the Champion Hurdle has thrown this year’s race wide-open. State Man is very short in the betting to claim victory, and if at his best, the Mullins runner is the most likely winner.
However, a value angle could come in the form of Nemean Lion for Kerry Lee. Undeniably, the seven-year-old has plenty to find on ratings, but he could take his chance in the Grade 1 after the recent news.
He was a very impressive winner over a mile and seven on his latest start, beating Colonel Liam by over a length. He has previous experience over an extended two miles at Cheltenham, finishing an encouraging fifth in the Greatwood in November.
A lot of things will need to go his way, but he’s plenty talented enough to at least hit the frame.
