Arkle Challenge Trophy Trends

Shishkin

The Arkle Challenge Trophy Trends 2022

Named in honour of the legendary three time Gold Cup winner, here we see the stepping stone for novice chasers who are looking to dip their toes into the Champion Chase the next season.

Always a classy affair the race has been in the grip of the Irish for the most part over the last few years with five of the last six winners coming from the Emerald Isle, but this year the betting market suggests it will go the way of the British with Edwardstone for Alan King.

Stat One

The race is open to horses aged five or older but 14/15 winners recently have been aged six or seven. The last horse out of this narrow bracket was Sizing Europe in 2010, so for the most part it looks an integral trend to follow.

That would put doubt over the chances of the eight year old fav Edwardstone, five year old mare Riviere D'etel, Saint Sam and Haut En Couleurs.

All of which are fairly prominent in the market but sit outside of the optimal age bracket that’s proven to be so prolific in this race over the last decade or so.

Stat Two

If you start to back up the 6/7 year olds with the trend that 13/15 of the previous winners finished top two in their race before the Arkle, you can begin to narrow the field further.

Proven form over fences is an obvious must have, so keeping those onside who had a strong outing last time out looks ideal.

Some who have looked promising early season but as we approach the Spring have flopped will find themselves scratched from the shortlists, which leaves the likes of For Pleasure and Haut En Couleurs vulnerable.

Stat Three

With this being a top table Grade One event, sticking with proven performers in the top tiers from their hurdle careers could pay dividends.

11/15 previous Arkle winners had placed in a Grade One over timber and although this stat not applying to 2020 winner Put The Kettle On, she did break the mould for many of the stats and was somewhat an anomaly winner.

Carrying high calibre form from hurdles to fences looks likely, so it’s interesting to note that ante-post favourite Edwardstone does not fit this bracket.

Stat Four

Even more interestingly is previous form at Cheltenham, with 12/15 previous winners had either won or been placed at Cheltenham.

With the unique test that Prestbury Park provides, some proven experience over the track is always a bonus.

This wipes out a lot of the horses near the top of the betting with only Saint Sam and Magic Daze fitting this stat and they are in the market at decent prices.

Stat Five

Taking this into account with the fact that 9/15 previous winners had previously won at Cheltenham and 11/15 had ran in the previous year’s festival, course form appears to be a vital piece of this puzzle.

The first stat will not be followed up by any horses in the race this year with none of them winning at Cheltenham before

Latching onto some top class form from last season’s festival could unearth a potential gem in this fairly open looking field.

Stat Six

Finally to iron out the class divide, 11/15 previous winners had been sired by a Group 1 or Group 2 winners on the flat.

Quite similar to the Supreme field, you can cherry pick out those bred in the purple if you’re looking to cement the final few selections for your shortlist.

A good deal of the entrants have the correct profile breeding.

Value Angle

The value angle in the race looks to come from five year old Saint Sam, who was a good third in the Boodles last year and has taken to fences quite well, rallying late on last time out to grab third.

Currently at 8/1 he represents each way value in the field if jumping better.

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