Common Trends In The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Trends for the Arc

The Qater Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is France's biggest and most highly anticipated horse event, takes place at Longchamp Racecourse on the first Sunday of October. Run over a distance of 2,400 metres (1 ½ miles), it is Europe's most prestigious horse race. Its roll of honour features many highly acclaimed horses, and its winners are often subsequently regarded as champions. It is also the world's richest turf race and third-richest horse race (behind the Pegasus World and Dubai World Cup. With just five days to go until the Paris highlight and the field starting to take shape, what trends can we notice from recent years before placing a bet on Sunday?

RECENT WINNERS

Firstly, we will begin with recent winners. The last three years, the Brit’s have raided the French prize with thanks to outstanding performances from Golden Horn (2015), Found (2016) and Enable (2017).

The UK and Ireland are strongly represented once more, with Enable – the reigning champion spearheading the market. Her market rivals features stablemate Cracksman, William Haggas’ Yorkshire Oaks winner Sea of Class and St Leger victor Kew Gardens. Should they all take their place, you would fancy the Brit’s to take dead aim once more and collect a fourth Arc in as many years.

AGE AND SEX

11 of the previous 15 winners of the race have been 3 years old. Many of the top 3yo’s that compete in the Guineas and the Derby in their classic season, usually skive a Triple Crown Campaign for a crack at the more ‘luxurious races’ such as the Juddmonte (York) or indeed the Arc in France. Sea the Stars won the first two legs of the Triple Crown before challenging his elders in the Arc, and coming out on top in 2009 under Kieron Fallon. 3yo’s also gain a weight allowance which could prove the difference. Only two 5yo’s have won the French showpiece since 1976.

Six times in the last seven years, the boys have been sent packing with their tails between their legs as Treve (twice), Solemia, Danedream, Found and Enable have come out on top. Only Golden Horn could break that run in a year when Treve, who disappointed as the even-money favourite, and Found, sent off at 8/1, were the leading representatives for the fairer sex. Fillies also get a weight allowance of 3lbs, and hence the success of 3yo fillies in recent years – (Enable).

OTHER KEY STATS:

Since 2007:

  • Seven winners have been drawn in single figures with six drawn between one-six.
  • Seven winners had won their preceding start.
  • Nine winners had their preceding start in September.
  • Ten winners had won a Group One over this distance (12 furlongs)
  • Four winners had run no more than five times during the current season.
  • All the three-year-old winners had won either a European Derby or Oaks.
  • Seven winners won at least 50% of their starts during the current season.
  • Eight winners either raced in midfield or were held-up.

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