Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle Trends

The culmination of the qualification races throughout the season, the Pertemps final sees those placed top four in qualifiers eligible for this race at the festival.

Ran over three miles on the new course, the Grade 3 race is open to five year olds and above and has created some top stayers in recent years.

Delta Work, Presenting Percy and Sire Du Berlais are all recent winners who have made their presence felt in higher grade races since winning this.

The highlighted stats and trends could highlight the next Pertemps final winner.

As usual with handicaps, start building a profile off the back of official ratings.

10 of the last 12 winners were rated 138-148.

This is normally base to work with. A 10lb window to work with narrows the field down considerably.

However, Sire Du Berlais in 2020 was seen winning off a mark of 152 and two years ago Mrs Milner won off a mark of 134.

Usually those rated below 138 probably aren’t of the necessary class to win this now its a Grade 3, those above 148 are probably too exposed to be competitive.

Third Wind won this race off 141 last year fitting the trend.

The next focus is age.

11 of the last 14 winners were aged 6-8 years old.

In fact, 10 of the last 11 fell into this bracket too.

Buena Vista is the last winner to fall above the highlighted window with both of his wins in 2010 and 2011.

Delta Work was the last horse to be below the age bracket winning as a five year old in 2018.

For the most part it’s easy to narrow the focus to those aged 6-8. It seems those who are relatively unexposed over hurdles due to their age have the right profile for doing well in this race.

Call Me Lord and Mill Green are two of the horses in the field that this stat goes again being aged 10 and 11 respectively.

Form coming into the Pertemps final is something to keep in mind.

11 of the last 16 winners finished in the first 4 on their prep run for the festival.

The last two winners not to fall into this category for nine years was Sire Du Berlais for his 2019 victory in the final and Mrs Milner last year, heading into the race off the back of a fall.

For the most part, the winners warmed up with a solid showing prior to winning in the Pertemps

The last 10 winners previous outing form reads:

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As mentioned with age, being unexposed is key to being competitive in these big handicaps.

11 of the last 15 winners had 10 or fewer hurdle runs to their name.

Furthermore, eight of the last 10 winners had 10 or fewer hurdle runs to their name.

Last year's winner did not fit this stat having been seen frequently over hurdles and it all seeming to come together in the 2022 Pertemps Final.

As counterintuitive as it may be, previous festival form isn’t a key ingredient for a winner of this race.

11 of the last 16 hadn’t run at the previous years’ festival.

Digging deeper, nine of the last 11 didn’t run in the previous year’s festival.

This ties in with the unexposed profiles doing well in this race. For the most part the winners hadn’t already shown their hand in a top race. A festival run normally puts these horses firmly on the radar.

Look for those who weren’t at the festival last year and have plenty of scope for improvement off their current mark.

With the Pertemps final being over three miles, ability to get the trip well is an essential.

11 of the last 14 winners had two or more runs over 23-25 furlongs. The winners are usually tried and tested at the trip. They have experience in three mile races.

Eight of the last 14 winners had one or more wins over 23-25 furlongs.

It can be an easy way to narrow down the field, look for those who have won at the distance.

Finding a runner with two or more runs over three miles and a win on the trip and you’ve got some serious shortlist material.

Although at the top of the marker Shoot First looks primed for a big run in this event filling up a lot of the stats and trends for this race.

A previous winner at Cheltenham having been seen twice over three miles he shows he can stay the trip and is comfortable at the track.

Only being seven years of age he sees himself in the perfect age bracket for the race and given a rating of 137 he sits just on the cusp of the last few winners.

He is a huge player.