Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle Trends

agrapart wholestone hurdles

Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle Trends

The culmination of the qualification races throughout the season, the Pertemps final sees those placed top six in qualifiers eligible for this race at the festival.

Ran over three miles on the new course, the Grade 3 race is open to five year olds and above and has created some top stayers in recent years.

Delta Work, Presenting Percy and Sire Du Berlais are all recent winners who have made their presence felt in higher grade races since winning this.

The highlighted stats and trends could highlight the next Pertemps final winner.

Stat One

As usual with handicaps, start building a profile off the back of official ratings.

Nine of the last 11 winners were rated 138-148.

This is normally base to work with. A 10lb window to work with narrows the field down considerably.

However, Sire Du Berlais in 2020 was seen winning off a mark of 152 and last year's winner Mrs Milner won off a mark of 134.

Usually those rated below 138 probably aren’t of the necessary class to win this now its a Group 3, those above 148 are probably too exposed to be competitive.

Stat Two

The next focus is age.

10 of the last 13 winners were aged 6-8 years old.

In fact, nine of the last 10 fell into this bracket too.

Buena Vista is the last winner to fall above the highlighted window with both of his wins in 2010 and 2011.

Delta Work was the last horse to be below the age bracket winning as a five year old in 2018.

For the most part it’s easy to narrow the focus to those aged 6-8. It seems those who are relatively unexposed over hurdles due to their age have the right profile for doing well in this race.

Sire Du Berlais, while not straightforward, was clearly above handicap company.

Stat Three

Form coming into the Pertemps final is something to keep in mind.

10 of the last 15 winners finished in the first 4 on their prep run for the festival.

The last two winners not to fall into this category for nine years was Sire Du Berlais for his 2019 victory in the final and Mrs Milner last year, heading into the race off the back of a fall.

For the most part, the winners warmed up with a solid showing prior to winning in the Pertemps

The last 10 winners previous outing form reads:

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Stat Four

As mentioned with age, being unexposed is key to being competitive in these big handicaps.

11 of the last 14 winners had 10 or fewer hurdle runs to their name.

Furthermore, eight of the last nine winners had 10 or fewer hurdle runs to their name.

Again Sire Du Berlais proves the exception to the rule, but he fits the cliche of being the graded horse in the handicap.
Try to focus on those who aren’t in the clutches of the handicapper due to having a plethora of runs.

Those with a bit of wiggle room in their mark but have experience over timber should be making your shortlist.

Stat Five

As counterintuitive as it may be, previous festival form isn’t a key ingredient for a winner of this race.

10 of the last 15 hadn’t run at the previous years’ festival.

Digging deeper, eight of the last 10 didn’t run in the previous year’s festival.

This ties in with the unexposed profiles doing well in this race. For the most part the winners hadn’t already shown their hand in a top race. A festival run normally puts these horses firmly on the radar.

Look for those who weren’t at the festival last year and have plenty of scope for improvement off their current mark.

Stat Six

With the Pertemps final being over three miles, ability to get the trip well is an essential.

10 of the last 13 winners had two or more runs over 23-25 furlongs. The winners are usually tried and tested at the trip. They have experience in three mile races.

Seven of the last 13 winners had one or more wins over 23-25 furlongs.

It can be an easy way to narrow down the field, look for those who have won at the distance.

Finding a runner with two or more runs over three miles and a win on the trip and you’ve got some serious shortlist material.

Value Angle

Scouring the NRNB markets for some value, Dunboyne for Gordon Elliott looks to be a horse who have bags of abilty but has yet to fully show it.

A second season hurdler, the gelding in his first season over timber was tried at 2m, 2m4f and 3m, placing twice and going on to land a Maiden Hurdle over the furthest trip.

A much more experienced horse this term and staying over the smaller obstacles, he finished eighth of 18 in a decent Handicap hurdle at Naas off a mark of 129.

Off the same mark he stepped up in trip to three miles finishing 11th of 23 and then over the same trip at Leopardstown at Christmas off the same mark was a much better fifth.

Off 1lb lower he was last seen at the Dublin Racing Festival when cruising into contention in the three mile Handicap Hurdle, but was bumper and knocked back in the field and turning the bend his race was run.

Before that he was running a huge race, on the bridle and ready to use his stamina to go close.

This makes him extremely dangerous for the festival, with it being a big stamina test and his current mark of 128 won't be that different in the Pertemps, which sees him get some serious weight off the field.

Dunboyne, overall fits many of the key stats for this race with 10 of the last 13 winners being aged between six and eight and 10 of the last 15 winners hadn’t run at the previous years’ festival and he fits both those bills.

Currently a best price of 8/1 he should not be far away if getting a clear run.

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